Team Boca
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU16 · 8 teams · Team Boca (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:30 AM
Southeast Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.3 against · 1.55 expected points)
| Season so far | Team Boca | Athletic Club Florida Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | W W L D W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at Cape Coral SA | 5–0 vs Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami | 0–5 at ACF Sunrise |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.94 | +0.60 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.17 | -0.12 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–2 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami (L)
Common opponents: SWFL PREMIER FC — we 0–1; they 4–0. Cape Coral SA — we 5–0; they 5–0. ACF Sunrise — we 3–1; they 0–5.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Athletic Club Florida Miami score 2.2/game — well above the league's 1.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at SWFL PREMIER FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 25% / loss 32%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Southeast Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Athletic Club Florida Miami game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Team Boca – Athletic Club Florida Miami) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 41%
- 2nd 28%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 9%
- 5th 3%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACF Sunrise | 2.40 (+0.26) | 2nd (1.98) | 19 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
How the results connect
20 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Team Boca to Athletic Club Florida Miami through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Southeast Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
SFFA 6th · 0-3-2 · GD -2 |
Away Canyon District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–0 | 1.96 | 2.06 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -24 |
Home Fau Glades |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.90 | 2.14 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 3rd · 4-2-1 · GD +7 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.76 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
AC Florida West 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–1 | 1.97 | 2.10 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 11:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 2.05 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
SFFA 6th · 0-3-2 · GD -2 |
Home Fau Glades |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
1–0 | 2.15 | 2.05 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACF Sunrise | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.29 | +0.02 | 93% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Team Boca | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.17 | -0.10 | 97% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 31 at SFFA · Sat Apr 3 vs Cape Coral SA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WLWDW | -0.14 | -0.03 | 90% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise · Sat Apr 3 at SFFA See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | WDLWW | -0.12 | -0.09 | 85% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | AC Florida West | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLDL | +0.32 | -0.23 | 33% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Sep 19 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | SFFA | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 0.60 | DDDLL | -0.03 | +0.08 | 1% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Athletic Club Florida | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.17 | -0.01 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA · Sat Oct 31 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.35 | +0.34 | 0% | 8.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.