SWFL PREMIER FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU16 · 8 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | SWFL PREMIER FC | AC Florida West |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-2-1 | 2-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L W D | D L W W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs Cape Coral SA | 3–0 vs Athletic Club Florida |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Athletic Club Florida Miami | 0–1 vs Team Boca |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.59 | +0.42 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | +0.23 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 2–2 at AC Florida West (D)
Common opponents: Team Boca — we 1–0; they 0–1. SFFA — we 0–0; they 3–2. Athletic Club Florida — we 2–1; they 3–0.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs SFFA, 0–4 at Athletic Club Florida Miami.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 22% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
-
What a win does
Athletic Club Florida Miami sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.83.A win moves us above Athletic Club Florida Miami on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the AC Florida West game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC – AC Florida West) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.71 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.71 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.57 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 12%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 21%
- 4th 27%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 2%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACF Sunrise | 2.40 (+0.57) | 1st (1.98) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 2 | Team Boca | 2.00 (+0.17) | 2nd (1.95) | Win next game |
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 2.00 (+0.17) | 3rd (1.84) | Win next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC to AC Florida West through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 5th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
AC Florida West 5th · 2-1-1 · GD +3 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.80 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 01:00 PM |
ACF Sunrise 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
SFFA 6th · 0-3-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Canyon District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
1–1 | 1.75 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Team Boca 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Fau Glades |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.06 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 09:00 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.66 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 03:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -24 |
Away far trip
Cape Coral Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
3–0 | 2.79 | 1.75 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACF Sunrise | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.29 | +0.04 | 91% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Team Boca | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWWW | -0.07 | -0.12 | 93% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 31 at SFFA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | WDLWW | -0.15 | -0.05 | 82% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 | 1.83 | DWLWD | -0.20 | +0.03 | 76% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | AC Florida West | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | WWLD | +0.23 | -0.15 | 56% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Sep 19 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | SFFA | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 0.60 | DDDLL | -0.02 | +0.09 | 1% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | -0.02 | +0.09 | 1% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.36 | +0.38 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.