TableChase Clubs

ACF Sunrise

ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU16 · 8 teams · ACF Sunrise (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
1st
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+7 goal diff · 12–5
WWWLWlast 5
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

Open the match preview →

ACF Sunrise
1st · 2.40 PPG
at
Cape Coral SA
8th · 0.17 PPG

Pelican Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.7 for, 0.5 against · 2.82 expected points)

Season so farACF SunriseCape Coral SA
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-10-1-5
Points per game2.400.17
Goals for / game2.40.0
Goals against / game1.04.0
Clean sheets31
Held scoreless06
Form (recent first)W L W W WL L L L D
Biggest win5–0 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami—
Worst loss1–3 at Team Boca0–8 at SWFL PREMIER FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.74-2.49
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29+0.36

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 1–0 vs Cape Coral SA (W)

Common opponents: Athletic Club Florida — we 2–0; they 0–5. Athletic Club Florida Miami — we 5–0; they 0–5. Team Boca — we 1–3; they 0–5. SFFA — we 3–2; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Cape Coral SA average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 6 of 6.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Cape Coral SA concede 4.0/game; worst result 0–8 at SWFL PREMIER FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 3–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Cape Coral SA have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 03:00 PM at Pelican Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cape Coral SA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ACF Sunrise – Cape Coral SA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2 5th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

34% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.4 average finish
  1. 1st 34%
  2. 2nd 26%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

15 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link ACF Sunrise to Cape Coral SA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
0 favour them
+6.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 3–2 0–0 1–3 5–0 2–0 5–0 5–0 5–0 1–2 3–1 0–1 8–0 0–0 0–0 ACF Sunrise 1st SFFA 6th Team Boca 2nd Athletic Club Flori… 7th Athletic Club Flori… 3rd SWFL PREMIER FC 4th Cape Coral SA 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 4th 8th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 4th hardest of 8

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Mon Jan 1
TBD
no score posted		 Athletic Club Florida
7th · 1-0-4 · GD -3		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.94 2.32 Swing game
Sun Aug 23
TBD
no score posted		 AC Florida West
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +3		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 2.20 Upside
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM		 Cape Coral SA
8th · 0-1-5 · GD -24		 Away far trip
Pelican Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 3–0 2.82 2.28 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 SWFL PREMIER FC
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +6		 Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.35 2.17 Upside
Sat Mar 6
11:30 AM		 Athletic Club Florida Miami
3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Miami Dade College		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.35 2.09 Upside
Sun Mar 7
01:00 PM		 SWFL PREMIER FC
4th · 3-2-1 · GD +6		 Home
Nob Hill Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.61 2.05 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:00 AM		 SFFA
6th · 0-3-2 · GD -2		 Home
Nob Hill Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 1–0 2.05 2.05 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
11:00 AM		 Team Boca
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +8		 Home
Nob Hill Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.39 2.00 Upside
Sun Apr 18
11:00 AM		 AC Florida West
5th · 2-1-1 · GD +3		 Home
Nob Hill Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 1–1 1.73 1.98 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ACF Sunrise 5401 125+7 122.40 WWWLW -0.29 +0.04 92% 2.4
2 Team Boca 6402 135+8 122.00 WLWWW -0.07 -0.12 94% 2.4
3 Athletic Club Florida Miami 5311 116+5 102.00 WDLWW -0.15 -0.05 80% 3.1
4 SWFL PREMIER FC 6321 137+6 111.83 DWLWD -0.20 +0.03 74% 3.4
5 AC Florida West 4211 85+3 71.75 WWLD +0.23 -0.15 57% 3.9
6 SFFA 5032 46-2 30.60 DDDLL -0.02 +0.09 2% 6.4
7 Athletic Club Florida 5104 710-3 30.60 LLLWL -0.02 +0.09 1% 6.4
8 Cape Coral SA 6015 024-24 10.17 DLLLL +0.36 +0.38 0% 8.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.