AC Florida West
ECNL Regional League Girls · Florida GU16 · 8 teams · AC Florida West (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.9 against · 1.14 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Florida West | SWFL PREMIER FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W W | D W L W D |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Athletic Club Florida | 8–0 vs Cape Coral SA |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Team Boca | 0–4 at Athletic Club Florida Miami |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.42 | +0.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.23 | -0.20 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 18 2–2 vs SWFL PREMIER FC (D)
Common opponents: Athletic Club Florida — we 3–0; they 2–1. SFFA — we 3–2; they 0–0. Team Boca — we 0–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Team Boca.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Lakewood Ranch Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
SWFL PREMIER FC sit 4th on 1.83 PPG; we are on 1.75.A point moves us above SWFL PREMIER FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SWFL PREMIER FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Florida West – SWFL PREMIER FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.60 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.60 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.40 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 7%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 23%
- 5th 37%
- 6th 5%
- 7th 1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACF Sunrise | 2.40 (+0.65) | 1st (1.98) | 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 2 | Team Boca | 2.00 (+0.25) | 2nd (1.95) | Win next game |
| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 2.00 (+0.25) | 3rd (1.84) | Win next game |
| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 1.83 (+0.08) | 4th (1.75) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link AC Florida West to SWFL PREMIER FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Aug 23 TBD no score posted |
ACF Sunrise 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sun Sep 13 01:00 PM no score posted |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -24 |
Home JetBlue Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
3–0 | 2.84 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Sep 19 02:00 PM no score posted |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Home JetBlue Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.80 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
Cape Coral SA 8th · 0-1-5 · GD -24 |
Away Pelican Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.75 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Athletic Club Florida 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 11:30 AM |
Athletic Club Florida Miami 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Miami Dade College |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
Team Boca 2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Fau Glades |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 02:00 PM |
SFFA 6th · 0-3-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Canyon District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.66 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
ACF Sunrise 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Nob Hill Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–1 | 1.05 | 1.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | ACF Sunrise | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWLW | -0.29 | +0.04 | 92% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Aug 23 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 at Cape Coral SA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Team Boca | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 12 | 2.00 | WLWWW | -0.07 | -0.12 | 94% | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sat Oct 31 at SFFA See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Athletic Club Florida Miami | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 10 | 2.00 | WDLWW | -0.15 | -0.05 | 80% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 vs SFFA · Sun Oct 25 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SWFL PREMIER FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 | 1.83 | DWLWD | -0.20 | +0.03 | 74% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Florida West · Sun Oct 25 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Mar 7 at ACF Sunrise See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AC Florida West | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 | 1.75 | WWLD | +0.23 | -0.15 | 57% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Aug 23 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Sep 13 vs Cape Coral SA · Sat Sep 19 vs Athletic Club Florida Miami See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | SFFA | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 0.60 | DDDLL | -0.02 | +0.09 | 2% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Athletic Club Florida Miami · Sun Oct 25 at Athletic Club Florida · Sat Oct 31 vs Team Boca See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Athletic Club Florida | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | -0.02 | +0.09 | 1% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Mon Jan 1 vs ACF Sunrise · Sat Oct 24 vs Team Boca · Sun Oct 25 vs SFFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Cape Coral SA | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24 | -24 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | +0.36 | +0.38 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at AC Florida West · Sat Oct 24 vs ACF Sunrise · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Florida West See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.58 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.