United PDX
ECNL Regional League Girls · Far West GU14 · 7 teams · United PDX (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.17 expected points)
| Season so far | United PDX | Capital FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-1 | 5-0-2 |
| Points per game | 2.57 | 2.14 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | W W L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–1 at Eugene Metro FC | 7–0 vs Eastside Timbers |
| Worst loss | 1–4 at Oregon Premier FC | 1–4 at Oregon Premier FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.26 | +1.60 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.31 | -0.24 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 1–0 vs Capital FC (W)
Common opponents: Portland City United — we 2–0; they 6–0. FC Portland — we 2–0; they 2–0, 2–1. Eugene Metro FC — we 6–1, 2–0; they 6–1. Eastside Timbers — we 6–1; they 7–0. Oregon Premier FC — we 1–4; they 1–4.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Capital FC score 3.4/game — well above the league's 2.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Capital FC concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 32%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at CFC Pioneer Sportspark.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Capital FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (United PDX – Capital FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 2.38 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.63 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.38 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 60%
- 3rd 33%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 3.00 (+0.43) | 1st (2.64) | 51 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
How the results connect
34 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link United PDX to Capital FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.31 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.17 | 2.40 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 11:30 AM |
Eastside Timbers 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 09:30 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.96 | 2.29 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
South Meadows Middle School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.91 | 2.26 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 01:00 PM |
Portland City United 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Home University of Oregon Portland - NE Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.85 | 2.31 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 TBD |
Portland City United 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.85 | 2.35 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 10:00 AM |
Eastside Timbers 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -20 |
Away Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.38 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -14 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–0 | 2.14 | 2.38 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.72 | 2.29 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Eastside Timbers 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.83 | 2.32 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Portland City United 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 2.34 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Capital FC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.17 | 2.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -14 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.29 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Capital FC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.44 | 2.25 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–1 | 1.91 | 2.24 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | +26 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.41 | -0.41 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United PDX | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -0.31 | -0.31 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Capital FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.24 | -0.11 | 100% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 at Portland City United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eugene Metro FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | +0.47 | +0.17 | 9% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Portland City United · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Portland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWLL | +0.56 | -0.16 | 90% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eastside Timbers | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWL | -0.05 | +0.34 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Portland City United · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Portland City United | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 26 | -22 | 3 | 0.43 | WLLLL | +0.03 | +0.37 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside Timbers · Sun Oct 25 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.