FC Portland

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Lane Community College, Soccer Field ↗ far trip

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.92 expected points)

Common opponents: Eastside Timbers — we 0–0; they 3–0. Capital FC — we 0–2, 1–2; they 1–6. United PDX — we 0–2; they 1–6, 0–2. Portland City United — we 7–2; they 3–0. Oregon Premier FC — we 0–1; they 0–8.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Eugene Metro FC concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–8 at Oregon Premier FC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–0 vs Eastside Timbers, 0–2 at Capital FC, 0–2 at United PDX, 0–1 vs Oregon Premier FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 57% / draw 20% / loss 23%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Away game
  Kickoff 12:00 PM at Lane Community College.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Eugene Metro FC sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.67.

  A win moves us above Eugene Metro FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Eugene Metro FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Portland – Eugene Metro FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 92%
5. 5th 8%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).