Eugene Metro FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Far West GU14 · 7 teams · Eugene Metro FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Lane Community College, Soccer Field ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.3 against · 0.88 expected points)
| Season so far | Eugene Metro FC | FC Portland |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 1-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.7 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L L | L L W L L |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Portland City United | 7–2 at Portland City United |
| Worst loss | 0–8 at Oregon Premier FC | 0–2 at Capital FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.38 | +0.02 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.47 | +0.56 |
Common opponents: Portland City United — we 3–0; they 7–2. United PDX — we 1–6, 0–2; they 0–2. Capital FC — we 1–6; they 0–2, 1–2. Oregon Premier FC — we 0–8; they 0–1. Eastside Timbers — we 3–0; they 0–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–8 at Oregon Premier FC, 0–2 at United PDX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Portland game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eugene Metro FC – FC Portland) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.86 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 9%
- 5th 76%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.64) | 66 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | United PDX | 2.57 (+1.57) | 2nd (2.24) | 56 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection |
| 3 | Capital FC | 2.14 (+1.14) | 3rd (2.12) | 46 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection |
How the results connect
38 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Eugene Metro FC to FC Portland through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.17 · 3rd hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Portland City United 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 1.09 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Capital FC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Home Lane Community College |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.25 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 0.96 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26 |
Home Bob Keefer |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.09 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 01:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 0.95 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 02:00 PM |
Capital FC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Home Bob Keefer |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.25 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
United PDX 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.21 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Portland City United 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 0.93 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 02:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 0.98 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.05 | 0.92 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +26 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.09 | 0.88 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Eastside Timbers 6th · 1-1-5 · GD -20 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 0.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
United PDX 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +14 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Capital FC 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–4 | 0.15 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
FC Portland 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.65 | 0.86 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 11:00 AM |
Portland City United 7th · 1-0-6 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 0.90 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | +26 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.41 | -0.41 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United PDX | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWL | -0.31 | -0.31 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Capital FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.24 | -0.11 | 100% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 at Portland City United See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eugene Metro FC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWL | +0.47 | +0.17 | 9% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Portland City United · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Portland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWLL | +0.56 | -0.16 | 91% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Eastside Timbers | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 25 | -20 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLWL | -0.05 | +0.34 | 0% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Portland City United · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Portland City United | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 26 | -22 | 3 | 0.43 | WLLLL | +0.03 | +0.37 | 0% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside Timbers · Sun Oct 25 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.06 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.