FC Portland

ECNL Regional League Girls · Far West GU13 · 7 teams · FC Portland Academy (all teams)

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6th

1-1-4 record · 6 played

0.67 points per game

-15 goal diff · 3–18

LDWLLlast 5

3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.3

+0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM

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FC Portland
6th · 0.67 PPG

Eugene Metro FC
5th · 0.67 PPG

Lane Community College, Soccer Field ↗ far trip

22% 26% 51%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.5 against · 0.93 expected points)

Season so far	FC Portland	Eugene Metro FC
Position	6th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-4	1-1-4
Points per game	0.67	0.67
Goals for / game	0.5	0.5
Goals against / game	3.0	1.7
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	4	4
Form (recent first)	L L W D L	L W L L L
Biggest win	2–1 at Portland City United	2–0 vs Eastside Timbers
Worst loss	0–7 at Capital FC	1–4 at Capital FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.41	-0.68
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.67	+0.33

Common opponents: Eastside Timbers — we 0–1; they 2–0. Capital FC — we 0–7, 0–3; they 1–4. United PDX — we 1–1; they 0–2, 0–1. Portland City United — we 2–1; they 0–0. Oregon Premier FC — we 0–5; they 0–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Eugene Metro FC average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 4 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–1 vs Eastside Timbers, 0–7 at Capital FC, 0–5 vs Oregon Premier FC, 0–3 vs Capital FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Lane Community College.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Eugene Metro FC sit 5th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.67.
A point moves us above Eugene Metro FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eugene Metro FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Portland – Eugene Metro FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.57 PPG	7th▼ down 1	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1
Win 1.00 PPG	5th▲ up 1	5th▲ up 1	6th— holds
Draw 0.71 PPG	6th— holds	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1
Loss 0.57 PPG	7th▼ down 1	6th— holds	7th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

3% top 4

97% below the top 4

6.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 3%
5th 14%
6th 33%
7th 51%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Oregon Premier FC	3.00 (+2.33)	1st (2.64)	68 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Capital FC	2.57 (+1.90)	2nd (2.40)	58 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
3	United PDX	1.43 (+0.76)	3rd (1.35)	31 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4	Eastside Timbers	1.29 (+0.62)	4th (1.24)	27 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5	Eugene Metro FC	0.67 (+0.00)	5th (0.91)	Already ahead

How the results connect

38 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FC Portland to Eugene Metro FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

9 even

17 favour them

-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 2nd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM	Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7	Away far trip Lane Community College	●●●●● Very tough	22%	0–1	0.93	0.70	Upside
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18	Away far trip Lakeridge Middle School	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.05	0.62	Upside
Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM	Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7	Home Liberty High School	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.14	0.68	Upside
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	Portland City United 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -11	Home Liberty High School	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.32	0.74	Upside
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	Eastside Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -3	Away far trip Eastside Timbers Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.69	0.74	Upside
Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM	United PDX 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -1	Home South Meadows Middle School	●●●●● Very tough	18%	0–1	0.78	0.74	Upside
Sat Jan 23 03:00 PM	Capital FC 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +19	Away far trip CFC Pioneer Sportspark	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.06	0.69	Upside
Sat Jan 30 11:00 AM	Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18	Home Liberty High School	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–3	0.08	0.65	Upside
Sat Feb 6 09:00 AM	Eastside Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -3	Home Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	21%	0–1	0.87	0.66	Upside
Sun Feb 7 TBD	Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18	Away	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.05	0.62	Upside
Sat Feb 20 TBD	United PDX 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -1	Away	●●●●● Very tough	13%	0–1	0.62	0.62	Upside
Sat Feb 27 TBD	Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7	Away	●●●●● Very tough	22%	0–1	0.93	0.64	Upside
Sun Feb 28 11:00 AM	Portland City United 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -11	Away far trip Buckman Field Park	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.10	0.66	Upside
Sat Mar 6 09:00 AM	Portland City United 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -11	Home Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.32	0.70	Upside
Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM	Eastside Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -3	Away far trip Eastside Timbers Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.69	0.70	Upside
Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM	Capital FC 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +19	Home Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.11	0.67	Upside
Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM	Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7	Home Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.14	0.69	Upside
Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM	United PDX 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -1	Home Liberty High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	18%	0–1	0.78	0.69	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Oregon Premier FC

+18

3.00

WWWWW

-0.34

-0.31

100%

1.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	United PDX (3rd)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	FC Portland (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Portland City United (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Portland (6th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Portland City United (7th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0	84%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	FC Portland (6th)	3–0	94%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–0	72%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	FC Portland (6th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Portland City United (7th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	2–0	89%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	2–0	85%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Portland City United (7th)	3–0	94%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	1–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Capital FC

+19

2.57

WWWWW

-0.45

-0.22

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Portland (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 11	at	United PDX (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Portland City United (7th)	4–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Portland (6th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 at Portland City United See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Portland City United (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	FC Portland (6th)	4–0	96%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	2–0	82%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Portland City United (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Portland City United (7th)	3–0	93%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	United PDX (3rd)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Portland (6th)	4–0	93%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	United PDX (3rd)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

United PDX

-1

1.43

WLLWL

-0.03

+0.06

94%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Portland City United (7th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–1	8%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Jan 30	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–1	8%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–0	49%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	65%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–0	42%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastside Timbers

-3

1.29

LWLWL

-0.09

+0.05

84%

3.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Portland City United (7th)	4–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	United PDX (3rd)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Portland City United (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Portland City United · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–0	33%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	47%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–0	40%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	55%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eugene Metro FC

-7

0.67

LLLWL

+0.33

+0.04

16%

5.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Portland City United (7th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Portland City United · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	2%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Portland City United (7th)	1–0	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Portland

-15

0.67

LDWLL

+0.67

+0.10

6.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Portland City United (7th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	United PDX (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Jan 30	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Portland City United (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Portland City United (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Portland City United

-11

0.57

WLLLL

+0.11

+0.17

6.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Capital FC (2nd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside Timbers · Sun Oct 25 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Capital FC (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–1	26%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	25%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	FC Portland (6th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	FC Portland (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Capital FC (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	United PDX (3rd)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Oregon Premier FC (1st)	0–3	1%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Eastside Timbers (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Eugene Metro FC (5th)	0–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.34 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.