Capital FC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Far West GU13 · 7 teams · Capital FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
CFC Pioneer Sportspark, Ed Davison 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 0.7 against · 2.42 expected points)
| Season so far | Capital FC | United PDX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 6-0-1 | 3-1-3 |
| Points per game | 2.57 | 1.43 |
| Goals for / game | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L W L L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs FC Portland | 2–0 at Portland City United |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Oregon Premier FC | 0–3 at Oregon Premier FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.69 | -0.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.45 | -0.03 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 11 2–0 at United PDX (W)
Common opponents: FC Portland — we 7–0, 3–0; they 1–1. Oregon Premier FC — we 1–3; they 0–3. Portland City United — we 4–1; they 2–0. Eugene Metro FC — we 4–1; they 2–0, 1–0. Eastside Timbers — we 3–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the United PDX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Capital FC – United PDX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.63 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.63 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.38 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 19%
- 2nd 81%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 3.00 (+0.43) | 1st (2.64) | 54 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
How the results connect
34 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Capital FC to United PDX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.22 · 6th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
United PDX 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–0 | 2.42 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM |
Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Lane Community College |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
2–0 | 2.59 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 06:00 PM |
Portland City United 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
Eastside Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.39 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 2.44 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 03:00 PM |
FC Portland 6th · 1-1-4 · GD -15 |
Home CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
4–0 | 2.91 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 02:00 PM |
Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Bob Keefer |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
2–0 | 2.59 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 09:00 AM |
Portland City United 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Buckman Field Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.74 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 2.41 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM |
Eastside Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Eastside Timbers Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.39 | 2.41 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Portland City United 7th · 1-1-5 · GD -11 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
3–0 | 2.84 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
United PDX 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
2–0 | 2.42 | 2.43 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
FC Portland 6th · 1-1-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Liberty High School · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 93% |
4–0 | 2.84 | 2.45 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Eugene Metro FC 5th · 1-1-4 · GD -7 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.71 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
United PDX 3rd · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 2.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–1 | 0.89 | 2.39 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Eastside Timbers 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -3 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
2–0 | 2.56 | 2.40 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oregon Premier FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.34 | -0.31 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Capital FC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.45 | -0.22 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs United PDX · Sun Nov 1 at Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 at Portland City United See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | United PDX | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | WLLWL | -0.03 | +0.06 | 94% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Eastside Timbers · Sat Nov 14 vs Oregon Premier FC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eastside Timbers | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLWL | -0.09 | +0.05 | 83% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Portland City United · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC · Sun Nov 8 at United PDX See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Eugene Metro FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 | 0.67 | LLLWL | +0.33 | +0.04 | 17% | 5.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Portland · Sun Oct 25 at Portland City United · Sun Nov 1 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Portland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 4 | 0.67 | LDWLL | +0.67 | +0.10 | 3% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eugene Metro FC · Sun Nov 1 at Oregon Premier FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Eugene Metro FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Portland City United | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 4 | 0.57 | WLLLL | +0.11 | +0.17 | 3% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside Timbers · Sun Oct 25 vs Eugene Metro FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Capital FC See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.34 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.