Eastside Timbers

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Eastside Timbers Sports Complex, Field 1 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.8 against · 1.91 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Sep 26 0–1 at Portland City United (L); Sat Oct 17 4–1 vs Portland City United (W)

Common opponents: FC Portland — we 1–0; they 1–2. Oregon Premier FC — we 0–2; they 0–3. United PDX — we 1–0; they 0–2. Eugene Metro FC — we 0–2; they 0–0. Capital FC — we 0–3; they 1–4.

• They struggle to score
  Portland City United average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 3 of 7.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Portland City United concede 2.1/game; worst result 1–4 at Capital FC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–2 vs Oregon Premier FC, 0–1 at Portland City United, 0–2 at Eugene Metro FC, 0–3 at Capital FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 55% / draw 26% / loss 19%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  Portland City United have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  United PDX sit 3rd on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.29.

  A point moves us above United PDX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Portland City United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eastside Timbers – Portland City United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd 34%
4. 4th 50%
5. 5th 13%
6. 6th 2%
7. 7th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.52 PPG if we win out).