Charlotte SA Blue
ECNL Regional League Girls · Carolinas GU16 · 9 teams · Charlotte Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:00 PM
Orthocarolina Complex, Field 2 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.6 against · 2.34 expected points)
| Season so far | Charlotte SA Blue | Highland FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-1 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.40 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W W W | D W L L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Wilmington Hammerheads | 5–1 vs NC Fusion |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at NC Fusion | 0–4 vs NCFC Youth Elite |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.72 | +0.01 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.54 | +0.55 |
Common opponents: Wilmington Hammerheads — we 7–0; they 3–2. NCFC Youth Premier — we 3–1; they 5–4, 1–1. NC Fusion — we 1–2; they 5–1.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Charlotte SA White sit 2nd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.40.A win moves us above Charlotte SA White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Highland FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Charlotte SA Blue – Highland FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd 71%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NCFC Youth Elite | 3.00 (+0.60) | 1st (2.82) | 24 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Charlotte SA White | 2.50 (+0.10) | 2nd (2.42) | Win next game |
How the results connect
24 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Charlotte SA Blue to Highland FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.54 · 1st hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM |
Highland FC 4th · 3-1-2 · GD -1 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.34 | 2.39 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +43 |
Away far trip
WRAL |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.56 | 2.13 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
South Carolina Surf 8th · 0-0-3 · GD -20 |
Home Legion Collegiate Academy |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
6–1 | 2.89 | 2.22 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
Wilmington Hammerheads 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -18 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 87% |
4–1 | 2.67 | 2.27 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 6 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA White 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Frank Liske Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.32 | 2.18 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 04:00 PM |
NCFC Youth Elite 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +43 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.80 | 2.05 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 03:00 PM |
NC Fusion 5th · 3-0-5 · GD -11 |
Home Orthocarolina Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 2.09 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | NCFC Youth Elite | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 5 | +43 | 24 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.26 | +0.43 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Wilmington Hammerheads · Sat Oct 31 vs Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Dec 12 at Charlotte SA Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Charlotte SA White | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 11 | +17 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.39 | -0.73 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Catawba Valley YSA · Sun Nov 1 at NCFC Youth Premier See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Charlotte SA Blue | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.54 | +0.54 | 99% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Highland FC · Sat Oct 31 at NCFC Youth Elite · Sat Nov 7 vs South Carolina Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Highland FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWD | +0.55 | -0.98 | 89% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA White · Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina Surf See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NC Fusion | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 9 | 1.13 | WLLWW | +0.64 | -1.32 | 7% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Wilmington Hammerheads · Sun Dec 6 at South Carolina Surf See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NCFC Youth Premier | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 7 | 1.00 | LLWDW | -0.55 | +0.24 | 4% | 5.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Carolina Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 12 at Wilmington Hammerheads See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Wilmington Hammerheads | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 24 | -18 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +1.31 | -0.50 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NCFC Youth Elite · Sun Nov 8 at NC Fusion · Sat Dec 5 vs Charlotte SA Blue See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | South Carolina Surf | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 22 | -20 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +2.92 | -0.50 | 0% | 7.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NCFC Youth Premier · Sun Oct 25 at NC Fusion · Sat Oct 31 at Highland FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Catawba Valley YSA | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 35 | -29 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.04 | -0.51 | 0% | 8.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Charlotte SA White · Sat Dec 5 at South Carolina Surf · Sat Dec 12 at Highland FC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.84 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.