Herndon
ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU17 · 9 teams · Herndon Youth Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Herndon High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.7 for, 4.1 against · 0.44 expected points)
| Season so far | Herndon | Richmond United Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 3-1-2 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.67 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 4.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W L | L W D W L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Braddock Road Youth Club | 11–0 vs Braddock Road Youth Club |
| Worst loss | 1–6 at Arlington Soccer Association | 1–3 vs Beach FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.56 | +1.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.63 | -0.23 |
Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–6; they 1–1. Braddock Road Youth Club — we 5–0; they 11–0. Virginia Valor FC — we 2–1; they 10–2. Beach FC — we 1–2; they 1–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Richmond United Blue score 4.7/game — well above the league's 2.2.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Arlington Soccer Association sit 5th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.20.A win moves us above Arlington Soccer Association on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Richmond United Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Herndon – Richmond United Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 21%
- 7th 76%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VA Reign FC | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.83) | 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Beach FC | 2.67 (+1.47) | 2nd (2.29) | 16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Richmond United Blue | 1.67 (+0.47) | 3rd (1.82) | 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 4 | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club | 1.60 (+0.40) | 5th (1.58) | 7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 5 | Arlington Soccer Association | 1.50 (+0.30) | 4th (1.65) | Win next game |
How the results connect
21 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Herndon to Richmond United Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +1.33 · 2nd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Richmond United Blue 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +19 |
Home Herndon High School · turf? |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.44 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
VA Reign FC 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +21 |
Away far trip
warhill sports complex · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM |
Stafford Revolution 7th · 2-1-3 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Embrey Mill |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 0.96 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | VA Reign FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.44 | +0.39 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸ |
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| 2 | Beach FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | -0.71 | +1.62 | 100% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Richmond United Blue | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 9 | +19 | 10 | 1.67 | LWDWL | -0.23 | -0.23 | 87% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Herndon · Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | WDDWL | +0.08 | -0.00 | 41% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arlington Soccer Association | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 9 | 1.50 | DLDDW | +0.24 | -1.39 | 65% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Braddock Road Youth Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Herndon | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | -0.63 | +1.33 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United Blue · Sun Nov 1 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 8 at Stafford Revolution See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Stafford Revolution | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 7 | 1.17 | LLWDW | -0.07 | -0.23 | 7% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Virginia Valor FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.95 | -2.02 | 0% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Braddock Road Youth Club See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Braddock Road Youth Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 42 | -41 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | -0.38 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.