TableChase Clubs

Braddock Road Youth Club

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU17 · 9 teams · Braddock Road Youth Club (all teams)

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9th
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-41 goal diff · 1–42
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.9
+0.80 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Braddock Road Youth Club
9th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Arlington Soccer Association
5th · 1.50 PPG

Woodson High School, Auxiliary Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–5 (expected goals 0.7 for, 5.5 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farBraddock Road Youth ClubArlington Soccer Association
Position9th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-62-3-1
Points per game0.001.50
Goals for / game0.22.7
Goals against / game7.01.2
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless50
Form (recent first)L L L L LW D D L D
Biggest win—6–1 vs Herndon
Worst loss0–11 at Richmond United Blue1–2 at VA Reign FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-4.13+1.04
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.80+0.24

Common opponents: Great Falls Reston Soccer Club — we 1–5; they 1–1. Herndon — we 0–5; they 6–1. VA Reign FC — we 0–7; they 1–2. Richmond United Blue — we 0–11; they 1–1. Stafford Revolution — we 0–6; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–8 at Beach FC, 0–5 at Herndon, 0–7 vs VA Reign FC, 0–11 at Richmond United Blue, 0–6 at Stafford Revolution.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Virginia Valor FC sit 8th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Virginia Valor FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Arlington Soccer Association game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Braddock Road Youth Club – Arlington Soccer Association) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds
Win
0.43 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Draw
0.14 PPG		 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1 9th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 9th— holds 9th— holds 9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–5 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 88%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 0.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 VA Reign FC 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.83) 24 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Beach FC 2.67 (+2.67) 2nd (2.29) 22 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Richmond United Blue 1.67 (+1.67) 3rd (1.82) 14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club 1.60 (+1.60) 5th (1.58) 13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Arlington Soccer Association 1.50 (+1.50) 4th (1.65) 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Herndon 1.20 (+1.20) 7th (0.96) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Stafford Revolution 1.17 (+1.17) 6th (1.24) 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Virginia Valor FC 0.00 (+0.00) 8th (0.34) Already ahead

How the results connect

24 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Braddock Road Youth Club to Arlington Soccer Association through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
24 favour them
-7.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 1–1 0–6 2–2 0–7 2–1 0–5 1–6 0–11 1–1 6–0 4–0 1–0 4–1 0–8 3–1 2–0 5–2 Braddock Road Youth… 9th Great Falls Reston … 4th Stafford Revolution 7th VA Reign FC 1st Herndon 6th Richmond United Blue 3rd Beach FC 2nd Arlington Soccer As… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 5th 9th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.38 · 7th hardest of 9

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Arlington Soccer Association
5th · 2-3-1 · GD +9		 Home
Woodson High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–5 0.05 0.01 Upside
Sun Nov 1
06:00 PM		 Virginia Valor FC
8th · 0-0-6 · GD -19		 Home
Woodson High School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.68 0.09 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 VA Reign FC 6600 221+21 183.00 WWWWW -0.44 +0.39 100% 1.1
2 Beach FC 6510 183+15 162.67 WWDWW -0.71 +1.62 100% 2.0
3 Richmond United Blue 6312 289+19 101.67 LWDWL -0.23 -0.23 87% 3.4
4 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club 5221 1110+1 81.60 WDDWL +0.08 -0.00 41% 4.7
5 Arlington Soccer Association 6231 167+9 91.50 DLDDW +0.24 -1.39 65% 4.2
6 Herndon 5203 1013-3 61.20 LWWLL -0.63 +1.33 1% 6.7
7 Stafford Revolution 6213 1214-2 71.17 LLWDW -0.07 -0.23 7% 5.9
8 Virginia Valor FC 6006 423-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.95 -2.02 0% 8.1
9 Braddock Road Youth Club 6006 142-41 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.38 0% 8.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.24 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.