VA Reign FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU14 · 18 teams · Virginia Reign (all teams)

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2nd

5-1-0 record · 6 played

2.67 points per game

+17 goal diff · 22–5

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4

-0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:45 PM

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VA Reign FC
2nd · 2.67 PPG

Beach FC
1st · 2.67 PPG

warhill sports complex, Turf 2 ↗ · turf

36% 18% 46%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.6 against · 1.26 expected points)

Season so far	VA Reign FC	Beach FC
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	5-1-0	5-1-0
Points per game	2.67	2.67
Goals for / game	3.7	6.2
Goals against / game	0.8	1.0
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	W W W W D
Biggest win	6–0 vs Stafford Revolution	11–0 vs Herndon
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.71	+2.91
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.37	-0.99

Common opponents: Stafford Revolution — we 6–0; they 7–1. Virginia Valor FC — we 5–0; they 4–1. BRYC Academy — we 3–1; they 9–1. Richmond United Blue — we 1–0; they 1–1. Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL — we 4–1; they 5–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Beach FC score 6.2/game — well above the league's 1.9.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 36%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Beach FC have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
Beach FC sit 1st on 2.67 PPG; we are on 2.67.
A point moves us above Beach FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Beach FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VA Reign FC – Beach FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.43 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2
Win 2.71 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.43 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2
Loss 2.29 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

37% finish 1st

100% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.4 average finish

1st 37%
2nd 12%
3rd 30%
4th 21%
5th 1%
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th
15th
16th
17th
18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Beach FC	2.67 (+0.00)	4th (2.47)	A point next game

How the results connect

27 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link VA Reign FC to Beach FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

3 even

15 favour them

-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 8th hardest of 18

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:45 PM	Beach FC 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +31	Home warhill sports complex · turf	●●●●○ Tough	36%	2–2	1.26	2.47	Upside
Sun Nov 1 02:30 PM	Herndon 18th · 0-0-5 · GD -23	Home warhill sports complex · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	6–0	2.96	2.53	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Beach FC

+31

2.67

DWWWW

-0.99

+1.37

93%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Herndon (18th)	11–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	5–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stafford Revolution (15th)	7–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United Blue (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	BRYC Academy (14th)	9–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	4–2	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VA Reign FC

+17

2.67

WDWWW

-0.37

+0.16

100%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Richmond United Blue (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	BRYC Academy (14th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stafford Revolution (15th)	6–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (1st)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Herndon (18th)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Prince William Courage

2.60

WWWDW

+0.47

-1.04

94%

2.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia United (4th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Red (9th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Orange (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	VSA (10th)	3–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	LMVSC (12th)	4–2

Next: Sun Oct 4 at SOCA Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	SOCA Elite (17th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	2–0	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Virginia United

+15

2.50

WWWLW

-0.01

-0.67

97%

2.8

W	Sat Oct 24	at	Richmond United Orange (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Prince William Courage (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	LMVSC (12th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	VSA (10th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Richmond United Red (9th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOCA Elite (17th)	3–0	91%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

+11

2.17

WDWWL

-0.39

+0.69

16%

5.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	0–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Stafford Revolution (15th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Blue (8th)	6–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Herndon (18th)	7–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BRYC Academy (14th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Beach FC (1st)	2–4	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Virginia Valor FC

1.86

WWLWW

+0.10

-1.53

6.3

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Beach FC (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Stafford Revolution (15th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Herndon (18th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Blue (8th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	BRYC Academy (14th)	2–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Orange

1.86

LDWWL

+0.10

-1.21

6.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Virginia United (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	SOCA Elite (17th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Red (9th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	VSA (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Prince William Courage (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	LMVSC (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	1–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Blue

1.33

DDLWL

+0.58

-1.87

8.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	BRYC Academy (14th)	5–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	3–6
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Beach FC (1st)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Stafford Revolution (15th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Herndon · Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Herndon (18th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Richmond United Red

1.33

WDDLL

-0.02

+0.15

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	VSA (10th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Richmond United Orange (7th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Prince William Courage (3rd)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	LMVSC (12th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Virginia United (4th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SOCA Elite (17th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VSA

-1

1.29

LDDDW

+0.13

-1.30

9.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Richmond United Red (9th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	3–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Orange (7th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Prince William Courage (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Virginia United (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	LMVSC (12th)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOCA Elite (17th)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Vienna Youth Soccer

-5

1.17

LWLWD

-0.09

+0.47

12.1

D	Sun Oct 4	vs	VSA (10th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Virginia United (4th)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	SOCA Elite (17th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Richmond United Red (9th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Richmond United Orange (7th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Prince William Courage (3rd)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	LMVSC (12th)	1–2	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LMVSC

1.00

LDWLW

+0.02

-0.60

11.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia United (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	SOCA Elite (17th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Red (9th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United Orange (7th)	0–3
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Prince William Courage (3rd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	VSA (10th)	0–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL

-12

1.00

LLWLL

+0.38

-0.54

12.3

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Herndon (18th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Beach FC (1st)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	BRYC Academy (14th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stafford Revolution (15th)	2–1	46%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Richmond United Blue (8th)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BRYC Academy

-15

0.50

LWLLL

-0.11

+0.79

15.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Stafford Revolution (15th)	2–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Blue (8th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	VA Reign FC (2nd)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Herndon (18th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Beach FC (1st)	1–9

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	1–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stafford Revolution

-15

0.50

LLLLW

+0.73

-1.87

13.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	BRYC Academy (14th)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United Blue (8th)	0–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 8 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Herndon (18th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Villarreal Virginia Academy

-11

0.33

DLDLL

-0.03

+0.68

16.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	LMVSC (12th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	VSA (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Virginia United (4th)	0–5
D	Sun Aug 30	at	SOCA Elite (17th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Richmond United Red (9th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Richmond United Orange (7th)	0–1	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Prince William Courage (3rd)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOCA Elite

-9

0.25

DLLL

-0.24

+0.60

16.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Richmond United Orange (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	LMVSC (12th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Vienna Youth Soccer (11th)	0–3
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Villarreal Virginia Academy (16th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Prince William Courage · Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Prince William Courage (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VSA (10th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Virginia United (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Richmond United Red (9th)	0–1	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Herndon

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.42

+0.21

17.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Beach FC (1st)	0–11
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (13th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Virginia Valor FC (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BRYC Academy (14th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Arlington Soccer Association (5th)	2–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United Blue · Sun Nov 1 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 8 at Stafford Revolution See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Richmond United Blue (8th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	VA Reign FC (2nd)	0–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Stafford Revolution (15th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.