TableChase Clubs

Stafford Revolution

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU14 · 18 teams · Stafford Soccer (all teams)

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15th
1-0-5 record · 6 played
0.50 points per game
-15 goal diff · 7–22
LLLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.0
+0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:30 PM

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Stafford Revolution
15th · 0.50 PPG
at
Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
11th · 1.20 PPG

Nike Park, Field 7 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.4 against · 0.97 expected points)

Season so farStafford RevolutionGreat Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
Position15th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-52-0-3
Points per game0.501.20
Goals for / game1.21.4
Goals against / game3.72.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W L L L LL W L L W
Biggest win4–2 vs BRYC Academy3–1 at Herndon
Worst loss0–6 at VA Reign FC0–4 vs Arlington Soccer Association
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.32-0.73
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.67+0.34

Common opponents: VA Reign FC — we 0–6; they 1–4. Beach FC — we 1–7; they 2–5. Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–3; they 0–4. BRYC Academy — we 4–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–6 at VA Reign FC, 0–1 vs Richmond United Blue.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:30 PM at Nike Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    BRYC Academy sit 14th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above BRYC Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stafford Revolution – Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.43 PPG		 15th— holds 14th▲ up 1 18th▼ down 3
Win
0.86 PPG		 14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 15th— holds
Draw
0.57 PPG		 14th▲ up 1 14th▲ up 1 17th▼ down 2
Loss
0.43 PPG		 15th— holds 14th▲ up 1 18th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 14th if every rival drops points, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 50%
  15. 15th 19%
  16. 16th 7%
  17. 17th 2%
  18. 18th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach FC 2.67 (+2.17) 3rd (2.47) 19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 VA Reign FC 2.67 (+2.17) 1st (2.53) 19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Prince William Courage 2.60 (+2.10) 2nd (2.52) 18 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Virginia United 2.40 (+1.90) 4th (2.30) 17 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Arlington Soccer Association 2.17 (+1.67) 6th (2.03) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Richmond United Orange 2.17 (+1.67) 5th (2.07) 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Virginia Valor FC 1.67 (+1.17) 7th (1.76) 11 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Richmond United Blue 1.33 (+0.83) 8th (1.54) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Richmond United Red 1.33 (+0.83) 10th (1.33) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 VSA 1.29 (+0.79) 9th (1.37) 8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 1.20 (+0.70) 11th (1.21) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
12 Vienna Youth Soccer 1.17 (+0.67) 13th (1.05) 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
13 LMVSC 1.00 (+0.50) 12th (1.12) 5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
14 BRYC Academy 0.50 (+0.00) 15th (0.51) Already ahead

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Stafford Revolution to Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 0–1 1–3 4–0 1–7 5–2 0–6 4–1 0–1 3–6 7–2 1–3 3–3 1–3 3–0 9–1 0–1 2–0 1–4 Stafford Revolution 15th BRYC Academy 14th Arlington Soccer As… 5th Beach FC 1st VA Reign FC 2nd Richmond United Blue 8th Virginia Valor FC 7th Herndon 18th Great Falls Reston … 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.67 · 18th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:30 PM		 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Nike Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.97 0.57 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Herndon
18th · 0-0-5 · GD -23		 Home
Embrey Mill		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–1 2.22 0.77 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach FC 6510 376+31 162.67 DWWWW -1.00 +1.38 91% 2.2
2 VA Reign FC 6510 225+17 162.67 WDWWW -0.36 +0.16 99% 2.2
3 Prince William Courage 5410 115+6 132.60 WWWDW +0.50 -1.05 91% 2.7
4 Virginia United 5401 173+14 122.40 WWWWL -0.14 -0.24 71% 3.8
5 Arlington Soccer Association 6411 2312+11 132.17 WDWWL -0.41 +0.70 19% 5.2
6 Richmond United Orange 6411 82+6 132.17 WLDWW -0.19 +0.19 28% 5.3
7 Virginia Valor FC 6312 1010+0 101.67 DWWLW +0.34 -1.12 0% 7.4
8 Richmond United Blue 6222 109+1 81.33 DDLWL +0.51 -1.67 0% 8.3
9 Richmond United Red 6222 66+0 81.33 WDDLL +0.00 +0.15 0% 10.0
10 VSA 7232 1011-1 91.29 LDDDW +0.15 -1.31 0% 9.7
11 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 5203 714-7 61.20 WLLWL +0.34 -0.34 0% 11.2
12 Vienna Youth Soccer 6213 813-5 71.17 LWLWD -0.07 +0.48 0% 12.2
13 LMVSC 7214 1212+0 71.00 LDWLW +0.04 -0.60 0% 11.3
14 BRYC Academy 6105 722-15 30.50 LWLLL -0.04 +0.57 0% 15.6
15 Stafford Revolution 6105 722-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.67 -1.67 0% 14.0
16 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6024 516-11 20.33 DLDLL -0.03 +0.75 0% 16.2
17 SOCA Elite 4013 211-9 10.25 DLLL -0.21 +0.61 0% 16.0
18 Herndon 5005 326-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.42 +0.20 0% 17.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.