SOCA Elite
ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU14 · 18 teams · SOCA (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM
South Fork Soccer Park, Field 3 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.0 against · 0.81 expected points)
| Season so far | SOCA Elite | VSA |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 17th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-3 | 2-3-2 |
| Points per game | 0.25 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L D | W D D D L |
| Biggest win | — | 2–0 vs LMVSC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at LMVSC | 0–3 at Virginia United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.31 | -0.03 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.21 | +0.15 |
Common opponents: Villarreal Virginia Academy — we 2–2; they 1–1. Vienna Youth Soccer — we 0–3; they 3–3. LMVSC — we 0–5; they 2–0. Richmond United Orange — we 0–1; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Vienna Youth Soccer, 0–5 at LMVSC, 0–1 at Richmond United Orange.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 20%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Villarreal Virginia Academy sit 16th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.25.A point moves us above Villarreal Virginia Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the VSA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOCA Elite – VSA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.20 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 18th▼ down 1 |
| Win 0.80 PPG |
14th▲ up 3 | 14th▲ up 3 | 16th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.40 PPG |
16th▲ up 1 | 16th▲ up 1 | 18th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.20 PPG |
17th— holds | 17th— holds | 18th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th 2%
- 14th 10%
- 15th 23%
- 16th 18%
- 17th 36%
- 18th 10%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beach FC | 2.67 (+2.42) | 3rd (2.47) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | VA Reign FC | 2.67 (+2.42) | 1st (2.53) | 21 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Prince William Courage | 2.60 (+2.35) | 2nd (2.52) | 20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Virginia United | 2.40 (+2.15) | 4th (2.30) | 19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | Arlington Soccer Association | 2.17 (+1.92) | 6th (2.03) | 17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Richmond United Orange | 2.17 (+1.92) | 5th (2.07) | 17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Virginia Valor FC | 1.67 (+1.42) | 7th (1.76) | 13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Richmond United Blue | 1.33 (+1.08) | 8th (1.54) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 9 | Richmond United Red | 1.33 (+1.08) | 10th (1.33) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 10 | VSA | 1.29 (+1.04) | 9th (1.37) | 10 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 11 | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL | 1.20 (+0.95) | 11th (1.21) | 9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 12 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 1.17 (+0.92) | 13th (1.05) | 9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 13 | LMVSC | 1.00 (+0.75) | 12th (1.12) | 7 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 14 | BRYC Academy | 0.50 (+0.25) | 15th (0.51) | A point next game |
| 15 | Stafford Revolution | 0.50 (+0.25) | 14th (0.77) | A point next game |
| 16 | Villarreal Virginia Academy | 0.33 (+0.08) | 17th (0.36) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
21 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link SOCA Elite to VSA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.61 · 4th hardest of 18
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 4 11:45 AM no score posted |
Prince William Courage 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home South Fork Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.43 | 0.29 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
VSA 10th · 2-3-2 · GD -1 |
Home South Fork Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Virginia United 4th · 4-0-1 · GD +14 |
Away far trip
Kroger Soccer Park (Highland Farm Rd) |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–3 | 0.15 | 0.34 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
Richmond United Red 9th · 2-2-2 · GD +0 |
Home South Fork Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
0–1 | 0.85 | 0.40 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Beach FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 37 | 6 | +31 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | -1.00 | +1.38 | 91% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | VA Reign FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 | 2.67 | WDWWW | -0.36 | +0.16 | 99% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸ |
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| 3 | Prince William Courage | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | +0.50 | -1.05 | 91% | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 at SOCA Elite · Sun Oct 25 vs Vienna Youth Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Virginia United | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | +14 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.14 | -0.24 | 71% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Red · Sat Oct 31 vs SOCA Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arlington Soccer Association | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWL | -0.41 | +0.70 | 19% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Richmond United Orange | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | WLDWW | -0.19 | +0.19 | 28% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Virginia United · Sun Oct 25 vs Villarreal Virginia Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Virginia Valor FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | DWWLW | +0.34 | -1.12 | 0% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Richmond United Blue | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 8 | 1.33 | DDLWL | +0.51 | -1.67 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Herndon · Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Richmond United Red | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 8 | 1.33 | WDDLL | +0.00 | +0.15 | 0% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Virginia United · Sun Nov 1 at SOCA Elite See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | VSA | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 | 1.29 | LDDDW | +0.15 | -1.31 | 0% | 9.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SOCA Elite See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | +0.34 | -0.34 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Vienna Youth Soccer | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLWD | -0.07 | +0.48 | 0% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Prince William Courage · Sun Nov 1 at LMVSC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LMVSC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 7 | 1.00 | LDWLW | +0.04 | -0.60 | 0% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Vienna Youth Soccer See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | BRYC Academy | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | -0.04 | +0.57 | 0% | 15.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Stafford Revolution | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | +0.67 | -1.67 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 8 vs Herndon See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Villarreal Virginia Academy | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 2 | 0.33 | DLDLL | -0.03 | +0.75 | 0% | 16.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Richmond United Orange · Sun Nov 1 vs Prince William Courage See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | SOCA Elite | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | DLLL | -0.21 | +0.61 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 4 vs Prince William Courage · Sun Oct 25 vs VSA · Sat Oct 31 at Virginia United See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Herndon | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 26 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.42 | +0.20 | 0% | 17.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Richmond United Blue · Sun Nov 1 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 8 at Stafford Revolution See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.