TableChase Clubs

Herndon

ECNL Regional League Boys · Virginia BU14 · 18 teams · Herndon Youth Soccer (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 26 minutes ago.
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18th
0-0-5 record · 5 played
0.00 points per game
-23 goal diff · 3–26
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 17.7
+0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:45 PM

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Herndon
18th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Richmond United Blue
8th · 1.33 PPG

Herndon High School, Auxiliary Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 0.9 for, 3.2 against · 0.34 expected points)

Season so farHerndonRichmond United Blue
Position18th8th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-52-2-2
Points per game0.001.33
Goals for / game0.61.7
Goals against / game5.21.5
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L L L LL W L D D
Biggest win—5–1 vs BRYC Academy
Worst loss0–11 at Beach FC3–6 at Arlington Soccer Association
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.61+0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.42+0.51

Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 2–7; they 3–6. BRYC Academy — we 0–2; they 5–1. Virginia Valor FC — we 0–3; they 0–0. Beach FC — we 0–11; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 vs BRYC Academy, 0–3 vs Virginia Valor FC, 0–11 at Beach FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    SOCA Elite sit 17th on 0.25 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above SOCA Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Richmond United Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Herndon – Richmond United Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds
Win
0.50 PPG		 16th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 4 18th— holds
Draw
0.17 PPG		 18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG		 18th— holds 18th— holds 18th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we stay 18th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
17.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 6%
  17. 17th 10%
  18. 18th 80%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Beach FC 2.67 (+2.67) 3rd (2.47) 22 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 VA Reign FC 2.67 (+2.67) 1st (2.53) 22 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Prince William Courage 2.60 (+2.60) 2nd (2.52) 21 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Virginia United 2.40 (+2.40) 4th (2.30) 20 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Arlington Soccer Association 2.17 (+2.17) 6th (2.03) 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Richmond United Orange 2.17 (+2.17) 5th (2.07) 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Virginia Valor FC 1.67 (+1.67) 7th (1.76) 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Richmond United Blue 1.33 (+1.33) 8th (1.54) 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 Richmond United Red 1.33 (+1.33) 10th (1.33) 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
10 VSA 1.29 (+1.29) 9th (1.37) 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
11 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 1.20 (+1.20) 11th (1.21) 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
12 Vienna Youth Soccer 1.17 (+1.17) 13th (1.05) 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
13 LMVSC 1.00 (+1.00) 12th (1.12) 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
14 BRYC Academy 0.50 (+0.50) 15th (0.51) Win next game
15 Stafford Revolution 0.50 (+0.50) 14th (0.77) Win next game
16 Villarreal Virginia Academy 0.33 (+0.33) 17th (0.36) A point next game
17 SOCA Elite 0.25 (+0.25) 16th (0.40) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Herndon to Richmond United Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
20 favour them
-5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–7 6–3 0–3 0–0 0–2 1–5 0–11 1–1 3–1 0–1 1–3 0–4 3–0 1–3 1–0 1–4 3–3 3–1 1–0 Herndon 18th Arlington Soccer As… 5th Virginia Valor FC 7th BRYC Academy 14th Beach FC 1st Great Falls Reston … 11th Stafford Revolution 15th VA Reign FC 2nd Richmond United Blue 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 9th 18th Aug 29 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.20 · 7th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:45 PM		 Richmond United Blue
8th · 2-2-2 · GD +1		 Home
Herndon High School		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–3 0.34 0.06 Upside
Sun Nov 1
02:30 PM		 VA Reign FC
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +17		 Away far trip
warhill sports complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–6 0.03 0.05 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Stafford Revolution
15th · 1-0-5 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Embrey Mill		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.63 0.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Beach FC 6510 376+31 162.67 DWWWW -1.00 +1.38 92% 2.2
2 VA Reign FC 6510 225+17 162.67 WDWWW -0.36 +0.16 99% 2.2
3 Prince William Courage 5410 115+6 132.60 WWWDW +0.50 -1.05 91% 2.7
4 Virginia United 5401 173+14 122.40 WWWWL -0.14 -0.24 71% 3.8
5 Arlington Soccer Association 6411 2312+11 132.17 WDWWL -0.41 +0.70 18% 5.2
6 Richmond United Orange 6411 82+6 132.17 WLDWW -0.19 +0.19 29% 5.3
7 Virginia Valor FC 6312 1010+0 101.67 DWWLW +0.34 -1.12 0% 7.4
8 Richmond United Blue 6222 109+1 81.33 DDLWL +0.51 -1.67 0% 8.4
9 Richmond United Red 6222 66+0 81.33 WDDLL +0.00 +0.15 0% 10.0
10 VSA 7232 1011-1 91.29 LDDDW +0.15 -1.31 0% 9.7
11 Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 5203 714-7 61.20 WLLWL +0.34 -0.34 0% 11.2
12 Vienna Youth Soccer 6213 813-5 71.17 LWLWD -0.07 +0.48 0% 12.2
13 LMVSC 7214 1212+0 71.00 LDWLW +0.04 -0.60 0% 11.3
14 BRYC Academy 6105 722-15 30.50 LWLLL -0.04 +0.57 0% 15.6
15 Stafford Revolution 6105 722-15 30.50 LLLLW +0.67 -1.67 0% 14.0
16 Villarreal Virginia Academy 6024 516-11 20.33 DLDLL -0.03 +0.75 0% 16.3
17 SOCA Elite 4013 211-9 10.25 DLLL -0.21 +0.61 0% 16.0
18 Herndon 5005 326-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.42 +0.20 0% 17.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.91 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.