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DKSC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Texas BU18/19 · 16 teams · DKSC (all teams)

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15th
0-2-5 record · 7 played
0.29 points per game
-14 goal diff · 8–22
LLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.4
+0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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DKSC
15th · 0.29 PPG
vs
Lonestar ATX White
13th · 0.50 PPG

Coppell Middle School North, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.3 against · 1.17 expected points)

Season so farDKSCLonestar ATX White
Position15th13th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-51-0-5
Points per game0.290.50
Goals for / game1.11.7
Goals against / game3.12.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L D L LW L L L L
Biggest win—3–0 vs Sting
Worst loss0–7 vs Dallas Texans1–4 at Albion Hurricanes FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.25-0.64
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.31+0.38

Common opponents: Sting — we 0–1; they 3–0. SOLAR SC — we 2–2; they 2–3. Houstonians FC — we 3–5; they 2–4. HTX S — we 1–4; they 1–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 vs Dallas Texans, 0–1 at HTX N, 0–1 at Sting.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth sit 14th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.29.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (DKSC – Lonestar ATX White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.25 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Win
0.63 PPG
13th▲ up 2 13th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 1
Draw
0.38 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1
Loss
0.25 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 16th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 12%
  14. 14th 22%
  15. 15th 28%
  16. 16th 27%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Albion Hurricanes FC 3.00 (+2.71) 1st (2.34) 43 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Dallas Texans 2.63 (+2.34) 3rd (2.30) 38 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Nido Dallas 2.60 (+2.31) 2nd (2.31) 37 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Houstonians FC 2.50 (+2.21) 5th (2.09) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 FC Westlake 2.50 (+2.21) 6th (1.85) 36 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 HTX S 2.38 (+2.09) 4th (2.23) 34 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 SOLAR SC 1.57 (+1.28) 7th (1.50) 22 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 RISE SC 1.50 (+1.21) 8th (1.37) 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 HTX N 1.29 (+1.00) 9th (1.29) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 Sting 1.29 (+1.00) 10th (1.00) 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
11 CHALLENGE UNITED 0.86 (+0.57) 11th (1.00) 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
12 SAFC 0.86 (+0.57) 12th (0.96) 11 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
13 Lonestar ATX White 0.50 (+0.21) 13th (0.90) A point next game
14 FC Dallas Youth 0.50 (+0.21) 14th (0.64) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link DKSC to Lonestar ATX White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
4 even
9 favour them
-1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–5 4–2 1–4 3–1 2–2 3–2 0–1 0–3 4–2 1–3 8–1 2–2 0–3 4–1 DKSC 15th Houstonians FC 4th HTX S 6th SOLAR SC 7th Sting 10th CHALLENGE UNITED 11th Lonestar ATX White 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 8th 16th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 12th hardest of 16

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
11:00 AM
no score posted
RISE SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD -1
Home
Coppell Middle School West
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.95 0.37 Upside
Sun Oct 4
11:00 AM
no score posted
Albion Hurricanes FC
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11
Home
Coppell Middle School West
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.31 0.36 Upside
Sat Oct 24
03:00 PM
Lonestar ATX White
13th · 1-0-5 · GD -7
Home
Coppell Middle School North
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.17 0.44 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
FC Westlake
5th · 3-1-0 · GD +4
Home
Coppell Middle School West
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.65 0.46 Upside
Sat Nov 7
03:00 PM
San Antonio City SC
16th · 0-1-6 · GD -11
Away far trip
Specht Soccer Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 0.53 Upside
Sun Nov 8
TBD
SAFC
12th · 2-0-5 · GD -6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.94 0.56 Upside
Sat Apr 24
11:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth
14th · 1-1-6 · GD -14
Away
Toyota Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 0.60 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Nido Dallas
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +11
Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.34 0.59 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Albion Hurricanes FC 4400 154+11 123.00 WWWW -0.11 -0.05 86% 2.6
2 Dallas Texans 8701 2910+19 212.63 WWWWW -0.46 +0.36 84% 2.9
3 Nido Dallas 5410 165+11 132.60 WWWDW +0.16 -0.14 83% 2.8
4 Houstonians FC 6501 2010+10 152.50 WWWWL -0.29 +0.14 49% 4.3
5 FC Westlake 4310 84+4 102.50 WWWD -0.21 +0.06 18% 5.7
6 HTX S 8611 247+17 192.38 LWWDW -0.27 +0.17 79% 3.2
7 SOLAR SC 7322 1716+1 111.57 WWDWD -0.13 +0.12 0% 7.6
8 RISE SC 4202 78-1 61.50 WLWL +0.32 -0.05 1% 8.4
9 HTX N 7304 1215-3 91.29 LWLWL -0.01 +0.12 0% 9.0
10 Sting 7304 920-11 91.29 WWWLL -0.12 +0.27 0% 11.3
11 CHALLENGE UNITED 7133 1016-6 60.86 DLLLD +0.06 +0.10 0% 11.1
12 SAFC 7205 915-6 60.86 LLLLW +0.00 +0.13 0% 11.4
13 Lonestar ATX White 6105 1017-7 30.50 LLLLW +0.38 -0.18 0% 11.8
14 FC Dallas Youth 8116 1024-14 40.50 LWLLD +0.15 -0.01 0% 14.1
15 DKSC 7025 822-14 20.29 LLDLL +0.31 -0.05 0% 14.4
16 San Antonio City SC 7016 718-11 10.14 LLLLL -0.14 +0.32 0% 15.2

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.