RISE SC STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU17 · 16 teams · RISE Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd

4-0-2 record · 6 played

2.00 points per game

+3 goal diff · 12–9

LWWLWlast 5

41% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4

-0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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RISE SC STXCL
3rd · 2.00 PPG

VCF HOUSTON STXCL
10th · 1.17 PPG

Zube Park , Field 1 ↗

36% 21% 43%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so far	RISE SC STXCL	VCF HOUSTON STXCL
Position	3rd	10th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-2	2-1-3
Points per game	2.00	1.17
Goals for / game	2.0	2.5
Goals against / game	1.5	2.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W L W W L	W L L D L
Biggest win	3–1 vs SAFC STXCL	4–1 at SAFC STXCL
Worst loss	0–2 vs MAFC STXCL	1–2 at JSAFC STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.28	+0.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.12	-0.44

Common opponents: SAFC STXCL — we 3–1; they 4–1. JSAFC STXCL — we 3–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs MAFC STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 36%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Zube Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the VCF HOUSTON STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (RISE SC STXCL – VCF HOUSTON STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.71 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 3
Win 2.14 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.86 PPG	3rd— holds	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2
Loss 1.71 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

41% top 4

59% below the top 4

5.4 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 5%
3rd 16%
4th 20%
5th 17%
6th 14%
7th 9%
8th 7%
9th 5%
10th 3%
11th 2%
12th 1%
13th 1%
14th <1%
15th
16th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MAFC STXCL	3.00 (+1.00)	1st (2.54)	33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL	2.67 (+0.67)	2nd (2.27)	29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link RISE SC STXCL to VCF HOUSTON STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 8th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	VCF HOUSTON STXCL 10th · 2-1-3 · GD +3	Away Zube Park	●●●●○ Tough	36%	1–2	1.30	1.90	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	Imperial SC STXCL 8th · 3-0-3 · GD +0	Away Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–1	1.47	1.85	Upside
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	AHFC EAST STXCL 6th · 3-1-2 · GD -2	Home Pershing Middle School	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.85	1.85	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 11th · 2-1-3 · GD -1	Away far trip Westcreek	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	2–2	1.50	1.81	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 13th · 2-1-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Westcreek	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.69	1.80	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 08:00 AM	NB AJAX STXCL 14th · 1-0-5 · GD -11	Home Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–1	2.29	1.84	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 08:00 AM	LTFC STXCL 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.45	1.81	Upside
Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM	SG1 STXCL 4th · 3-2-1 · GD +8	Away Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–2	0.99	1.75	Upside
Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +10	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	32%	1–2	1.17	1.71	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC STXCL

+18

3.00

WWWWW

-0.44

+0.09

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	8–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

+10

2.67

WWWDW

-0.03

-0.08

98%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake North STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–3	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

2.00

LWWLW

-0.12

+0.06

41%

5.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 STXCL

1.83

WDWWL

-0.20

+0.06

70%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 17	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	6–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

1.83

WDLWW

-0.23

+0.08

47%

5.2

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at JSAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC EAST STXCL

-2

1.67

WDLWL

+0.18

-0.07

10%

8.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

1.50

WWDDL

-0.03

+0.02

11%

7.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at JSAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

1.50

LWWLL

-0.08

+0.07

8.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

-4

1.20

LWLLW

+0.12

-0.06

10.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	3–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at JSAFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VCF HOUSTON STXCL

1.17

LDLLW

-0.44

+0.27

9.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	4–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-1

1.17

LDLWW

-0.19

+0.11

10.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 19	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	4–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs JSAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–2	41%
·	Fri Apr 23	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSAFC STXCL

-3

1.17

WLLWL

+0.33

-0.23

9.4

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-5

1.17

LDWLW

+0.35

-0.20

11.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs MAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	1–1	41%
·	Fri Apr 23	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NB AJAX STXCL

-11

0.50

LLWLL

+0.03

+0.09

14.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs SAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

-5

0.20

LLLDL

+0.36

-0.14

13.3

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

-17

0.00

LLLLL

+0.59

-0.22

15.5

L	Sat Oct 3	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.