Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU17 · 16 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.0 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | JSAFC STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-3 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L D L | L W L L W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at SAFC STXCL | 3–1 at FC Westlake North STXCL |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at SG1 STXCL | 1–4 at MAFC STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.13 | -0.22 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.19 | +0.33 |
Common opponents: VCF HOUSTON STXCL — we 4–4; they 2–1. SG1 STXCL — we 1–5; they 1–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs AHFC EAST STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 48% / draw 20% / loss 33%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
VCF HOUSTON STXCL sit 10th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.17.A point moves us above VCF HOUSTON STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the JSAFC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold – JSAFC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.43 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 3 | 11th— holds |
| Win 1.43 PPG |
9th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 3 | 11th— holds |
| Draw 1.14 PPG |
12th▼ down 1 | 13th▼ down 2 | 13th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
13th▼ down 2 | 13th▼ down 2 | 14th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 11%
- 10th 11%
- 11th 12%
- 12th 14%
- 13th 13%
- 14th 6%
- 15th 2%
- 16th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MAFC STXCL | 3.00 (+1.83) | 1st (2.54) | 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 2.67 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.27) | 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | RISE SC STXCL | 2.00 (+0.83) | 5th (1.71) | 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | SG1 STXCL | 1.83 (+0.66) | 3rd (1.85) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 5 | LTFC STXCL | 1.83 (+0.66) | 4th (1.73) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 1.67 (+0.50) | 7th (1.43) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 7 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 1.50 (+0.33) | 6th (1.46) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 8 | Imperial SC STXCL | 1.50 (+0.33) | 8th (1.40) | 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 9 | FC Westlake Central STXCL | 1.20 (+0.03) | 12th (1.22) | A point next game |
| 10 | VCF HOUSTON STXCL | 1.17 (+0.00) | 9th (1.31) | A point next game |
How the results connect
13 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold to JSAFC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.11 · 2nd hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
JSAFC STXCL 12th · 2-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Town & Country |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.63 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
LTFC STXCL 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Away Bee Creek Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
RISE SC STXCL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Westcreek |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.30 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
MAFC STXCL 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18 |
Home Westcreek |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.58 | 1.14 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 08:00 AM |
Imperial SC STXCL 8th · 3-0-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Dyess Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.23 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 08:00 AM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 7th · 2-3-1 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.15 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM |
FC Westlake North STXCL 15th · 0-1-4 · GD -5 |
Away Onion Creek Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.50 | 1.18 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
FC Westlake Central STXCL 9th · 2-0-3 · GD -4 |
Away Hill Country Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–2 | 1.42 | 1.19 | Upside |
| Fri Apr 23 08:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 13th · 2-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home Town & Country |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.23 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | MAFC STXCL | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.44 | +0.09 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | -0.03 | -0.08 | 98% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake North STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | RISE SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWLW | -0.12 | +0.06 | 41% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | SG1 STXCL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 11 | 1.83 | WDWWL | -0.20 | +0.06 | 67% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | WDLWW | -0.23 | +0.08 | 47% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at JSAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | AHFC EAST STXCL | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 | 1.67 | WDLWL | +0.18 | -0.07 | 10% | 8.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | WWDDL | -0.03 | +0.02 | 12% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at JSAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Imperial SC STXCL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLL | -0.08 | +0.07 | 8% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | FC Westlake Central STXCL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | +0.12 | -0.06 | 2% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at JSAFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | VCF HOUSTON STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLLW | -0.44 | +0.27 | 6% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 7 | 1.17 | LDLWW | -0.19 | +0.11 | 3% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs JSAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | JSAFC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWL | +0.33 | -0.23 | 5% | 9.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 7 | 1.17 | LDWLW | +0.35 | -0.20 | 1% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs MAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | NB AJAX STXCL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 | 0.50 | LLWLL | +0.03 | +0.09 | 0% | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs SAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | FC Westlake North STXCL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLDL | +0.36 | -0.14 | 0% | 13.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | SAFC STXCL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.59 | -0.22 | 0% | 15.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.