Imperial SC STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU17 · 16 teams · Imperial Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th

3-0-3 record · 6 played

1.50 points per game

+0 goal diff · 13–13

LWWLLlast 5

8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.5

-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

Open the match preview →

Imperial SC STXCL
8th · 1.50 PPG

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL
2nd · 2.67 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 4 ↗

17% 15% 67%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.2 against · 0.67 expected points)

Season so far	Imperial SC STXCL	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL
Position	8th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-3	5-1-0
Points per game	1.50	2.67
Goals for / game	2.2	3.2
Goals against / game	2.2	1.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L L W W L	W D W W W
Biggest win	5–0 at NB AJAX STXCL	3–0 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold
Worst loss	1–4 at LTFC STXCL	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.09	+1.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.08	-0.03

Common opponents: NB AJAX STXCL — we 5–0; they 3–1. LTFC STXCL — we 1–4; they 4–2. SG1 STXCL — we 1–2; they 3–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Houstonians FC STXCL sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Houstonians FC STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Imperial SC STXCL – CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.29 PPG	8th— holds	10th▼ down 2	12th▼ down 4
Win 1.71 PPG	6th▲ up 2	6th▲ up 2	7th▲ up 1
Draw 1.43 PPG	8th— holds	9th▼ down 1	10th▼ down 2
Loss 1.29 PPG	8th— holds	10th▼ down 2	12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

8% top 4

92% below the top 4

8.5 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 2%
4th 6%
5th 9%
6th 10%
7th 12%
8th 13%
9th 11%
10th 11%
11th 9%
12th 9%
13th 5%
14th 2%
15th <1%
16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MAFC STXCL	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.54)	36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL	2.67 (+1.17)	2nd (2.27)	32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3	RISE SC STXCL	2.00 (+0.50)	5th (1.71)	21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
4	SG1 STXCL	1.83 (+0.33)	3rd (1.85)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5	LTFC STXCL	1.83 (+0.33)	4th (1.73)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6	AHFC EAST STXCL	1.67 (+0.17)	7th (1.43)	A point next game
7	Houstonians FC STXCL	1.50 (+0.00)	6th (1.46)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Imperial SC STXCL to CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

2 even

7 favour them

-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 6th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +10	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–3	0.67	1.38	Upside
Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM	RISE SC STXCL 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +3	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.32	1.37	Upside
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	MAFC STXCL 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +18	Away Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.42	1.27	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM	SAFC STXCL 16th · 0-0-6 · GD -17	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.09	1.35	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 08:00 AM	JSAFC STXCL 12th · 2-1-3 · GD -3	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.33	1.35	Upside
Sat Nov 21 08:00 AM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 11th · 2-1-3 · GD -1	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.59	1.37	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 08:00 AM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 13th · 2-1-3 · GD -5	Home Zube Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	1–1	1.78	1.40	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 12:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 7th · 2-3-1 · GD +1	Away Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.15	1.38	Upside
Sun Apr 18 12:00 PM	AHFC EAST STXCL 6th · 3-1-2 · GD -2	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	2–2	1.64	1.40	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC STXCL

+18

3.00

WWWWW

-0.44

+0.09

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	5–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	8–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	4–1	91%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–2	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

+10

2.67

WWWDW

-0.03

-0.08

98%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at MAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake North STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–3	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	3–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–1	71%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

2.00

LWWLW

-0.12

+0.06

41%

5.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Imperial SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC EAST STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	36%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SG1 STXCL

1.83

WDWWL

-0.20

+0.06

67%

4.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	5–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	6–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Houstonians FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	3–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–2	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LTFC STXCL

1.83

WDLWW

-0.23

+0.08

47%

5.2

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at JSAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs NB AJAX STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC EAST STXCL

-2

1.67

WDLWL

+0.18

-0.07

10%

8.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

1.50

WWDDL

-0.03

+0.02

12%

7.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at AHFC EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at JSAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–0	50%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

1.50

LWWLL

-0.08

+0.07

8.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Central STXCL

-4

1.20

LWLLW

+0.12

-0.06

10.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	3–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at JSAFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VCF HOUSTON STXCL

1.17

LDLLW

-0.44

+0.27

9.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	4–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs SG1 STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-1

1.17

LDLWW

-0.19

+0.11

10.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–5
D	Sat Sep 19	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	4–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs JSAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–2	41%
·	Fri Apr 23	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSAFC STXCL

-3

1.17

WLLWL

+0.33

-0.23

9.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	60%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-5

1.17

LDWLW

+0.35

-0.20

11.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC STXCL (5th)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs MAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	1–1	41%
·	Fri Apr 23	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NB AJAX STXCL

-11

0.50

LLWLL

+0.03

+0.09

14.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 31 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs SAFC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	1–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake North STXCL

-5

0.20

LLLDL

+0.36

-0.14

13.5

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC STXCL (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Central STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	SAFC STXCL (16th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	SG1 STXCL (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

-17

0.00

LLLLL

+0.59

-0.22

15.6

L	Sat Oct 3	at	LTFC STXCL (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (11th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	MAFC STXCL (1st)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	SG1 STXCL (4th)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (10th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs FC Westlake North STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Central STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at NB AJAX STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	FC Westlake North STXCL (15th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Central STXCL (9th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	NB AJAX STXCL (14th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (8th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (7th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC EAST STXCL (6th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (13th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	JSAFC STXCL (12th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.05 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.