Sting CC STXCL Stewart
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU14 · 16 teams · Sting Corpus Christi (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.0 against · 1.76 expected points)
| Season so far | Sting CC STXCL Stewart | Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-2-1 | 1-2-3 |
| Points per game | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D D | L D L W D |
| Biggest win | — | 4–3 at AHFC East STXCL |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at RISE SC STXCL | 0–3 vs SAFC STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.30 | -0.71 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | -0.03 |
Common opponents: AHFC CENTRAL STXCL — we 2–2; they 2–4.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 18% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL sit 12th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.67.A point moves us above CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting CC STXCL Stewart – Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.75 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 15th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.25 PPG |
9th▲ up 4 | 8th▲ up 5 | 10th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 0.75 PPG |
13th— holds | 13th— holds | 15th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.50 PPG |
15th▼ down 2 | 15th▼ down 2 | 16th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 12th if every rival drops points, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 6%
- 7th 8%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 14%
- 10th 11%
- 11th 11%
- 12th 10%
- 13th 10%
- 14th 7%
- 15th 5%
- 16th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LTFC STXCL | 2.67 (+2.00) | 1st (2.53) | 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 2 | MAFC STXCL Royal | 2.33 (+1.66) | 2nd (2.42) | 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection |
| 3 | SAFC STXCL | 2.00 (+1.33) | 3rd (1.82) | 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 4 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 2.00 (+1.33) | 4th (1.75) | 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 1.60 (+0.93) | 5th (1.58) | 22 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 6 | VCF HOUSTON STXCL | 1.40 (+0.73) | 6th (1.57) | 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | Dynamos STXCL | 1.40 (+0.73) | 7th (1.33) | 19 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 8 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 1.33 (+0.66) | 11th (1.17) | 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 1.17 (+0.50) | 8th (1.28) | A point next game |
| 10 | RISE SC STXCL | 1.17 (+0.50) | 13th (1.10) | A point next game |
| 11 | Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue | 0.83 (+0.16) | 14th (0.96) | A point next game |
| 12 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 0.80 (+0.13) | 9th (1.26) | A point next game |
How the results connect
8 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Sting CC STXCL Stewart to Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 7th hardest of 16
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue 11th · 1-2-3 · GD -6 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–2 | 1.76 | 0.94 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
LTFC STXCL 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +15 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.50 | 0.85 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
TC Premier SC STXCL 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.19 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
MAFC STXCL Royal 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +20 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM |
Dynamos STXCL 7th · 2-1-2 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.17 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM |
CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Zube Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.10 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 10:00 AM |
Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 9th · 2-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 0.96 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM |
Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 8th · 2-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 1.03 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 02:00 PM |
SAFC STXCL 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4 |
Away ASP / CC |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
AHFC East STXCL 15th · 0-1-1 · GD -1 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.53 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM |
FC Westlake STXCL 16th · 0-1-3 · GD -11 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–1 | 2.21 | 1.13 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 02:00 PM |
Houstonians FC STXCL 14th · 1-1-4 · GD -12 |
Home ASP / CC |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.09 | 1.19 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | LTFC STXCL | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 16 | 2.67 | DWWWW | +0.11 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | MAFC STXCL Royal | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 3 | +20 | 14 | 2.33 | DWDWW | -0.33 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | SAFC STXCL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 8 | 2.00 | DDWW | -0.18 | -0.01 | 66% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs MAFC STXCL Royal See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | TC Premier SC STXCL | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 | 2.00 | WWWDL | +0.30 | -0.19 | 51% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 | 1.60 | DDLWW | +0.06 | -0.06 | 26% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 14 at LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | VCF HOUSTON STXCL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 7 | 1.40 | WWDLL | -0.07 | -0.02 | 29% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Dynamos STXCL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | 1.40 | WLDLW | -0.14 | +0.06 | 7% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 | 1.33 | WLDDW | -0.04 | +0.06 | 2% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | LWDLL | +0.35 | -0.21 | 5% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | RISE SC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LDWWL | -0.33 | +0.26 | 1% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 5 | 0.83 | DWLDL | -0.03 | +0.09 | 0% | 12.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 4 | 0.80 | LDLWL | +0.42 | -0.22 | 6% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Sting CC STXCL Stewart | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 | 0.67 | DDL | +0.03 | +0.00 | 3% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 | 0.67 | WLDLL | +0.23 | +0.00 | 0% | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | AHFC East STXCL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | -0.20 | +0.04 | 4% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at LTFC STXCL See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | FC Westlake STXCL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.16 | +0.06 | 0% | 15.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC East STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.