Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU14 · 16 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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8th

2-2-2 record · 6 played

1.33 points per game

-5 goal diff · 11–16

WLDDWlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.5

-0.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:00 AM

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Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold
8th · 1.33 PPG

LTFC STXCL
1st · 2.67 PPG

Bee Creek Sports Complex , Field 5 ↗

6% 9% 85%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–3 (expected goals 1.0 for, 3.7 against · 0.27 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold	LTFC STXCL
Position	8th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	2-2-2	5-1-0
Points per game	1.33	2.67
Goals for / game	1.8	3.2
Goals against / game	2.7	0.7
Clean sheets	1	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W D D L W	W W W W D
Biggest win	5–0 vs RISE SC STXCL	6–1 vs Houstonians FC STXCL
Worst loss	0–6 at MAFC STXCL Royal	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.53	+1.73
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.04	+0.11

Common opponents: MAFC STXCL Royal — we 0–6; they 1–1. Houstonians FC STXCL — we 2–2; they 6–1. Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold — we 2–1; they 5–1.

Game plan

Respect their attack
LTFC STXCL score 3.2/game — well above the league's 2.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
LTFC STXCL concede only 0.7/game with 2 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at MAFC STXCL Royal.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 6%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
LTFC STXCL have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 08:00 AM at Bee Creek Sports Complex .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Dynamos STXCL sit 7th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.33.
A point moves us above Dynamos STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LTFC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold – LTFC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.14 PPG	10th▼ down 2	10th▼ down 2	13th▼ down 5
Win 1.57 PPG	6th▲ up 2	7th▲ up 1	9th▼ down 1
Draw 1.29 PPG	8th— holds	7th▲ up 1	9th▼ down 1
Loss 1.14 PPG	10th▼ down 2	10th▼ down 2	13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–3 loss we fall to at least 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

10.5 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd <1%
4th 1%
5th 3%
6th 4%
7th 7%
8th 10%
9th 10%
10th 11%
11th 14%
12th 14%
13th 14%
14th 9%
15th 3%
16th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LTFC STXCL	2.67 (+1.34)	1st (2.53)	33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	MAFC STXCL Royal	2.33 (+1.00)	2nd (2.42)	27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	SAFC STXCL	2.00 (+0.67)	3rd (1.82)	22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
4	TC Premier SC STXCL	2.00 (+0.67)	4th (1.75)	22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL	1.60 (+0.27)	5th (1.58)	16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
6	VCF HOUSTON STXCL	1.40 (+0.07)	6th (1.57)	A point next game
7	Dynamos STXCL	1.40 (+0.07)	7th (1.33)	A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold to LTFC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us

13 favour them

-3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 4th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 08:00 AM	LTFC STXCL 1st · 5-1-0 · GD +15	Away Bee Creek Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	6%	0–3	0.27	1.18	Upside
Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM	FC Westlake STXCL 16th · 0-1-3 · GD -11	Away Westlake High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	1.27	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	Dynamos STXCL 7th · 2-1-2 · GD -1	Home Westcreek	●●●●○ Tough	38%	2–2	1.35	1.27	Upside
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 12th · 1-1-3 · GD -1	Home Westcreek	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.26	1.27	Upside
Sat Nov 21 04:00 PM	AHFC East STXCL 15th · 0-1-1 · GD -1	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–2	1.07	1.25	Upside
Sun Nov 22 02:00 PM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +1	Away far trip Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.22	Upside
Sun Feb 21 12:00 PM	SAFC STXCL 3rd · 2-2-0 · GD +4	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.68	1.18	Upside
Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM	Sting CC STXCL Stewart 13th · 0-2-1 · GD -2	Away far trip ASP / CC	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–2	1.13	1.18	Upside
Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM	TC Premier SC STXCL 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +2	Home Town & Country	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–2	1.07	1.17	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LTFC STXCL

+15

2.67

DWWWW

+0.11

-0.29

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	3–1	84%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC STXCL Royal

+20

2.33

DWDWW

-0.33

-0.05

100%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	2–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	3–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

2.00

DDWW

-0.18

-0.01

67%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TC Premier SC STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs MAFC STXCL Royal See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	73%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–1	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

2.00

WWWDL

+0.30

-0.19

53%

4.8

L	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

1.60

DDLWW

+0.06

-0.06

25%

6.2

W	Sun Sep 27	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 14 at LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VCF HOUSTON STXCL

1.40

WWDLL

-0.07

-0.02

30%

6.0

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

-1

1.40

WLDLW

-0.14

+0.06

8.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-5

1.33

WLDDW

-0.04

+0.06

10.5

W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at LTFC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Dynamos STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-3

1.17

LWDLL

+0.35

-0.21

9.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–5
L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

-4

1.17

LDWWL

-0.33

+0.26

11.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue

-6

0.83

DWLDL

-0.03

+0.09

12.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	4–3
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

-1

0.80

LDLWL

+0.42

-0.22

9.1

L	Sat Sep 26	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–1	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Stewart

-2

0.67

DDL

+0.03

+0.00

10.0

L	Sun Sep 20	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-12

0.67

WLDLL

+0.23

+0.00

14.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East STXCL

-1

0.50

-0.20

+0.04

10.4

D	Sun Sep 20	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	3–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at LTFC STXCL See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–2	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-11

0.25

LLDL

+0.16

+0.06

15.4

L	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC East STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	RISE SC STXCL (10th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (9th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.