CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU14 · 16 teams · Challenge SC (all teams)

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12th

1-1-3 record · 5 played

0.80 points per game

-1 goal diff · 7–8

LDLWLlast 5

6% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0

+0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM

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CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL
12th · 0.80 PPG

Houstonians FC STXCL
14th · 0.67 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 10 ↗

57% 20% 23%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.3 against · 1.91 expected points)

Season so far	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL	Houstonians FC STXCL
Position	12th	14th
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-3	1-1-4
Points per game	0.80	0.67
Goals for / game	1.4	1.2
Goals against / game	1.6	3.2
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	L W L D L	L L D L W
Biggest win	3–0 vs FC Westlake STXCL	3–0 at FC Westlake STXCL
Worst loss	0–2 at MAFC STXCL Royal	0–7 vs MAFC STXCL Royal
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.01	-1.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.41	+0.22

Common opponents: LTFC STXCL — we 1–2; they 1–6. FC Westlake STXCL — we 3–0; they 3–0. MAFC STXCL Royal — we 0–2; they 0–7.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Houstonians FC STXCL concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–7 vs MAFC STXCL Royal.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at TC Premier SC STXCL, 0–2 at MAFC STXCL Royal.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 20% / loss 23%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue sit 11th on 0.83 PPG; we are on 0.80.
A point moves us above Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL – Houstonians FC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.17 PPG	8th▲ up 4	8th▲ up 4	11th▲ up 1
Win 1.17 PPG	8th▲ up 4	8th▲ up 4	11th▲ up 1
Draw 0.83 PPG	11th▲ up 1	12th— holds	13th▼ down 1
Loss 0.67 PPG	13th▼ down 1	14th▼ down 2	15th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

6% top 4

94% below the top 4

9.0 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 1%
4th 4%
5th 6%
6th 9%
7th 11%
8th 13%
9th 12%
10th 11%
11th 10%
12th 9%
13th 7%
14th 4%
15th 2%
16th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LTFC STXCL	2.71 (+1.91)	1st (2.60)	37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	MAFC STXCL Royal	2.33 (+1.53)	2nd (2.42)	31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	SAFC STXCL	2.20 (+1.40)	3rd (2.01)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4	TC Premier SC STXCL	1.67 (+0.87)	4th (1.59)	22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
5	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL	1.60 (+0.80)	5th (1.59)	20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6	VCF HOUSTON STXCL	1.40 (+0.60)	6th (1.58)	17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7	Dynamos STXCL	1.40 (+0.60)	7th (1.33)	17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
8	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold	1.17 (+0.37)	8th (1.29)	14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
9	RISE SC STXCL	1.17 (+0.37)	12th (1.11)	14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
10	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold	1.14 (+0.34)	13th (1.07)	A point next game
11	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue	0.83 (+0.03)	14th (0.97)	Already ahead

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL to Houstonians FC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

3 even

1 favour them

+2.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 14th hardest of 16

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 14th · 1-1-4 · GD -12	Away Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.91	0.99	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	VCF HOUSTON STXCL 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +4	Away Zube Park	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–1	1.02	0.99	Upside
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold 8th · 2-1-3 · GD -3	Away far trip Westcreek	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.39	1.04	Upside
Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold 10th · 2-2-3 · GD -10	Away far trip Westcreek	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–1	1.69	1.11	Swing game
Sat Nov 21 12:00 PM	SAFC STXCL 3rd · 3-2-0 · GD +7	Home Zube Park	●●●●○ Tough	28%	1–1	1.05	1.11	Upside
Sun Nov 22 12:00 PM	Sting CC STXCL Stewart 13th · 0-2-1 · GD -2	Home Zube Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.67	1.16	Swing game
Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL 5th · 2-2-1 · GD +1	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.42	1.18	Upside
Sat Mar 6 02:00 PM	RISE SC STXCL 9th · 2-1-3 · GD -4	Home Zube Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–1	1.78	1.23	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 04:00 PM	AHFC East STXCL 15th · 0-1-1 · GD -1	Away Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	40%	2–2	1.39	1.24	Upside
Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM	Dynamos STXCL 7th · 2-1-2 · GD -1	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.61	1.26	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LTFC STXCL

+20

2.71

WWWWW

-0.10

-0.22

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs AHFC East STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–0	90%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MAFC STXCL Royal

+20

2.33

DWDWW

-0.35

-0.05

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	3–1	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	3–1	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SAFC STXCL

2.20

DDWWW

-0.13

-0.05

88%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 21 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–1	77%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC STXCL

-1

1.67

WWDLL

+0.45

-0.31

27%

6.1

L	Sat Oct 24	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at Houstonians FC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	72%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

1.60

DDLWW

+0.06

-0.07

29%

6.0

W	Sun Sep 27	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 12	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 14 at LTFC STXCL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–1	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VCF HOUSTON STXCL

1.40

WWDLL

-0.07

-0.03

30%

6.0

L	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at RISE SC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

-1

1.40

WLDLW

-0.14

+0.06

8.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs MAFC STXCL Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold

-3

1.17

LWDLL

+0.34

-0.21

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–5
L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Feb 28	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

-4

1.17

LDWWL

-0.33

+0.25

11.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold

-10

1.14

LDDWL

+0.30

-0.15

11.4

L	Sat Oct 24	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–5
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sun Nov 15 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue

-6

0.83

DWLDL

-0.03

+0.08

12.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	4–3
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Sting CC STXCL Stewart · Sun Nov 1 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–2	49%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sun Feb 28	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	2–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

-1

0.80

LDLWL

+0.41

-0.22

9.0

L	Sat Sep 26	at	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 12	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC STXCL Stewart

-2

0.67

DDL

+0.03

-0.01

9.7

L	Sun Sep 20	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Oct 31 vs LTFC STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-12

0.67

WLDLL

+0.22

-0.00

14.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at SAFC STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs TC Premier SC STXCL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East STXCL

-1

0.50

-0.35

+0.06

10.6

D	Sun Sep 20	vs	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	3–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at FC Westlake STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at LTFC STXCL See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Westlake STXCL (16th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	LTFC STXCL (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	3–2	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake STXCL

-11

0.25

LLDL

+0.16

+0.05

15.3

L	Sun Sep 20	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (12th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos STXCL (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (14th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL Royal (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC East STXCL See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar ATX STH STXCL Gold (10th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Barca Academy Austin STXCL Blue (11th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC East STXCL (15th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (5th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (6th)	0–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	RISE SC STXCL (9th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	SAFC STXCL (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	TC Premier SC STXCL (4th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Lonestar ATX NTH STXCL Gold (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	LTFC STXCL (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Sting CC STXCL Stewart (13th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.03 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.