RISE SC STXCL

ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU13 · 13 teams · RISE Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd

4-2-0 record · 6 played

2.33 points per game

+14 goal diff · 23–9

WDWWDlast 5

73% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7

-1.55 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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RISE SC STXCL
2nd · 2.33 PPG

Houstonians FC STXCL
6th · 1.50 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 9 ↗

56% 17% 27%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.0 against · 1.85 expected points)

Season so far	RISE SC STXCL	Houstonians FC STXCL
Position	2nd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-0	2-3-1
Points per game	2.33	1.50
Goals for / game	3.8	2.3
Goals against / game	1.5	2.7
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	D W W D W	L W D D W
Biggest win	6–0 vs Dynamos STXCL	4–0 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL
Worst loss	—	0–7 at MAFC STXCL Red
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.14	-0.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.55	+0.59

Common opponents: AHFC WEST STXCL — we 5–3; they 2–2. AHFC CENTRAL STXCL — we 2–2; they 4–0. VCF HOUSTON STXCL — we 1–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 17% / loss 27%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Houstonians FC STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (RISE SC STXCL – Houstonians FC STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.14 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Win 2.43 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.14 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

73% top 4

27% below the top 4

3.7 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 25%
3rd 22%
4th 26%
5th 14%
6th 8%
7th 3%
8th 2%
9th <1%
10th
11th
12th
13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	MAFC STXCL Red	3.00 (+0.67)	1st (2.94)	22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

19 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link RISE SC STXCL to Houstonians FC STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

3 even

8 favour them

+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.33 · 1st hardest of 13

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM	Houstonians FC STXCL 6th · 2-3-1 · GD -2	Away Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–2	1.85	2.26	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 08:00 AM	MAFC STXCL Red 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +65	Home Dyess Park	●●●●● Very tough	5%	1–5	0.20	2.01	Upside
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Cavalry STXCL 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -5	Away Zube Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.06	2.01	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 08:00 AM	HTX West STXCL 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +16	Home Dyess Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–2	1.53	1.96	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +18	Home Dyess Park	●●●●○ Tough	40%	2–2	1.37	1.91	Upside
Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM	Imperial SC STXCL 7th · 3-0-3 · GD -3	Away Zube Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	58%	3–2	1.89	1.91	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

MAFC STXCL Red

+65

3.00

WWWWW

-1.34

+0.50

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	15–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	11–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX North STXCL (11th)	15–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HTX West STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX West STXCL (4th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	7–1	98%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	5–1	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC STXCL

+14

2.33

WDWWD

-1.55

+1.33

73%

3.7

D	Sat Oct 17	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX North STXCL (11th)	7–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at Cavalry STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	2–2	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	HTX West STXCL (4th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	3–2	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL

+18

2.17

WWWWL

-1.05

+0.68

91%

2.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	9–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	6–2
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at HTX North STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Dynamos STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	HTX North STXCL (11th)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	2–2	42%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	1–5	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX West STXCL

+16

2.14

WLWLW

-1.03

+1.17

81%

3.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	HTX North STXCL (11th)	2–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	2–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	6–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Cavalry STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	1–5	3%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos STXCL

-5

1.71

LWWWL

+0.20

-0.29

15%

6.3

L	Sun Oct 4	at	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	0–7

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Oct 24 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Thu Oct 29 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX North STXCL (11th)	2–2	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC STXCL

-2

1.50

WDDWL

+0.59

-0.55

15%

6.3

L	Sun Oct 4	at	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	3–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	4–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 17 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs HTX North STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	HTX North STXCL (11th)	3–2	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	2–3	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	4–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC STXCL

-3

1.50

LWWLW

+0.62

-0.73

20%

5.9

W	Sun Sep 27	at	HTX North STXCL (11th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	5–8
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	3–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	5–2	75%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	2–4	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	3–2	49%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VCF HOUSTON STXCL

-7

1.29

LWLDW

+0.62

-0.77

7.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	6–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	0–8
D	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs HTX North STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	3–2	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	HTX North STXCL (11th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	HTX West STXCL (4th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cavalry STXCL

-5

1.00

WLWLL

-0.25

+0.28

8.8

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	8–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	HTX North STXCL (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at HTX West STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	4–1	88%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	1–7	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC CENTRAL STXCL

-8

0.83

DLLWL

-0.11

+0.16

10.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	HTX North STXCL (11th)	1–5
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	HTX West STXCL (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	2–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Thu Oct 29 at Dynamos STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	0–6	1%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX North STXCL

-18

0.50

LLLLW

+1.08

-0.92

10.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	3–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	1–15
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	3–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	2–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	4–2	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	4–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC WEST STXCL

-29

0.17

LDLLL

+1.67

-1.20

11.7

L	Sat Oct 17	at	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	1–11
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	2–6
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	3–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	HTX West STXCL (4th)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Cavalry STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	2–5	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	2–3	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	2–3	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	HTX North STXCL (11th)	2–4	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL (13th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL

-36

0.00

LLLLL

+1.63

-0.96

12.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	MAFC STXCL Red (1st)	0–15
L	Sat Oct 17	at	CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL (3rd)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 27	at	RISE SC STXCL (2nd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	VCF HOUSTON STXCL (8th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	HTX West STXCL (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos STXCL (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cavalry STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cavalry STXCL (9th)	1–4	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Imperial SC STXCL (7th)	1–5	5%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	AHFC CENTRAL STXCL (10th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	HTX North STXCL (11th)	1–4	15%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Houstonians FC STXCL (6th)	1–4	7%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	AHFC WEST STXCL (12th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.