Cavalry STXCL
ECNL Regional League Boys · STXCL BU13 · 13 teams · Cavalry FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.8 for, 1.4 against · 2.72 expected points)
| Season so far | Cavalry STXCL | Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-4 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 3.3 | 6.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 8–5 at Imperial SC STXCL | — |
| Worst loss | 1–5 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 0–15 vs MAFC STXCL Red |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.57 | -3.59 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.25 | +1.63 |
Common opponents: Dynamos STXCL — we 0–3; they 1–2. CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL — we 1–5; they 0–9.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.9); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL concede 6.3/game; worst result 0–15 vs MAFC STXCL Red.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Dynamos STXCL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 88% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cavalry STXCL – Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.29 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.29 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.86 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 18%
- 9th 34%
- 10th 21%
- 11th 10%
- 12th 1%
- 13th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MAFC STXCL Red | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.94) | 30 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | RISE SC STXCL | 2.33 (+1.33) | 4th (1.91) | 22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 3 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 2.17 (+1.17) | 2nd (2.03) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | HTX West STXCL | 2.14 (+1.14) | 3rd (1.92) | 20 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 5 | Dynamos STXCL | 1.71 (+0.71) | 6th (1.56) | 15 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 6 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 1.50 (+0.50) | 7th (1.50) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 7 | Imperial SC STXCL | 1.50 (+0.50) | 5th (1.57) | 12 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 8 | VCF HOUSTON STXCL | 1.29 (+0.29) | 8th (1.37) | 10 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
How the results connect
20 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Cavalry STXCL to Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.28 · 5th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL 13th · 0-0-6 · GD -36 |
Home Zube Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.72 | 1.25 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
AHFC WEST STXCL 12th · 0-1-5 · GD -29 |
Away Dyess Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–2 | 2.08 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 10:00 AM |
HTX West STXCL 4th · 5-0-2 · GD +16 |
Away Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM |
RISE SC STXCL 2nd · 4-2-0 · GD +14 |
Home Zube Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 1.21 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
VCF HOUSTON STXCL 8th · 2-3-2 · GD -7 |
Home Zube Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.59 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM |
MAFC STXCL Red 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +65 |
Home Dyess Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.03 | 1.14 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | MAFC STXCL Red | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 2 | +65 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.34 | +0.50 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HTX West STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at RISE SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | RISE SC STXCL | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 9 | +14 | 14 | 2.33 | WDWWD | -1.55 | +1.33 | 73% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 at Cavalry STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 9 | +18 | 13 | 2.17 | WWWWL | -1.05 | +0.68 | 92% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at HTX North STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Dynamos STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | HTX West STXCL | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWLW | -1.03 | +1.17 | 81% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at MAFC STXCL Red · Sat Oct 31 vs Cavalry STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Dynamos STXCL | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 | 1.71 | LWWWL | +0.20 | -0.29 | 15% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Houstonians FC STXCL · Sat Oct 24 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL · Thu Oct 29 vs AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Houstonians FC STXCL | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 | 1.50 | WDDWL | +0.59 | -0.55 | 14% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs RISE SC STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs HTX North STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Imperial SC STXCL | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLW | +0.62 | -0.73 | 21% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | VCF HOUSTON STXCL | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLDW | +0.62 | -0.77 | 4% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dynamos STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sun Nov 1 vs HTX North STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Cavalry STXCL | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 6 | 1.00 | WLWLL | -0.25 | +0.28 | 0% | 8.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at AHFC WEST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at HTX West STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | AHFC CENTRAL STXCL | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 5 | 0.83 | DLLWL | -0.11 | +0.16 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs MAFC STXCL Red · Thu Oct 29 at Dynamos STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | HTX North STXCL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 31 | -18 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | +1.08 | -0.92 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs CHALLENGE UNITED EAST STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at Houstonians FC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | AHFC WEST STXCL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 37 | -29 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLLL | +1.67 | -1.20 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Cavalry STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs VCF HOUSTON STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Real Greens Soccer Academy STXCL | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 38 | -36 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.63 | -0.96 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cavalry STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Imperial SC STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at AHFC CENTRAL STXCL See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.