XF

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU16 · 12 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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9th

2-1-4 record · 7 played

1.00 points per game

-13 goal diff · 6–19

DLWLWlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3

+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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XF
9th · 1.00 PPG

PacNW SC
11th · 0.29 PPG

Marymoor Park, Field 4 ↗

35% 25% 40%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.4 against · 1.30 expected points)

Season so far	XF	PacNW SC
Position	9th	11th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-4	0-2-5
Points per game	1.00	0.29
Goals for / game	0.9	0.9
Goals against / game	2.7	2.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	3	3
Form (recent first)	W L W L D	L L L L L
Biggest win	2–1 at Spokane Shadow	—
Worst loss	0–4 at Central Washington Sounders	0–3 vs Eastside FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.15	-0.73
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.21	+0.37

Common opponents: Central Washington Sounders — we 0–4; they 2–3. Whatcom FC Rangers — we 0–4; they 2–2. Spokane Shadow — we 2–1; they 1–1. Eastside FC — we 0–4; they 0–3. Northwest United — we 2–1; they 0–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at Central Washington Sounders, 0–4 vs Whatcom FC Rangers, 0–4 at Eastside FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
PacNW SC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF – PacNW SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Win 1.25 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds
Loss 0.88 PPG	9th— holds	9th— holds	9th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

9.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th <1%
6th <1%
7th 3%
8th 9%
9th 50%
10th 32%
11th 5%
12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Eastside FC	3.00 (+2.00)	1st (2.70)	56 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Seattle United	2.13 (+1.13)	2nd (2.13)	38 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
3	Central Washington Sounders	2.00 (+1.00)	3rd (1.82)	35 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4	Whatcom FC Rangers	1.75 (+0.75)	4th (1.74)	30 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5	Washington Premier	1.67 (+0.67)	5th (1.66)	29 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6	Northwest United	1.43 (+0.43)	8th (1.33)	24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black	1.33 (+0.33)	6th (1.51)	21 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8	Valor Soccer	1.33 (+0.33)	7th (1.41)	21 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

35 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link XF to PacNW SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

2 even

22 favour them

-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 6th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	PacNW SC 11th · 0-2-5 · GD -8	Home Marymoor Park	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.30	1.04	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Washington Premier 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3	Away far trip WPFC Field Complex	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–2	0.45	0.97	Upside
Sat Nov 7 TBD	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black 7th · 3-3-3 · GD -1	Home	●●●●● Very tough	20%	0–1	0.84	0.96	Upside
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Spokane Shadow 10th · 0-3-6 · GD -19	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–1	1.76	1.03	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 TBD	Whatcom FC Rangers 4th · 4-2-2 · GD +8	Away	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–3	0.37	0.98	Upside
Sun Dec 13 TBD	Columbia Premier SC 12th · 0-2-5 · GD -19	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	1–0	2.07	1.06	Swing game
Sat Jan 9 01:00 PM	Northwest United 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +2	Away far trip Mount Vernon High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–1	0.67	1.03	Upside
Sun Jan 10 TBD	Valor Soccer 8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2	Home	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	1.02	Upside
Sat Jan 16 TBD	Seattle United 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Home	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–3	0.36	0.98	Upside
Sun Jan 17 TBD	Washington Premier 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3	Home	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.64	0.96	Upside
Sat Jan 23 TBD	PacNW SC 11th · 0-2-5 · GD -8	Away	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–1	1.07	0.97	Upside
Sun Jan 31 TBD	Valor Soccer 8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2	Away	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.67	0.95	Upside
Sun Feb 7 TBD	Eastside FC 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +26	Home	●●●●● Very tough	3%	0–4	0.13	0.91	Upside
Sun Feb 21 TBD	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black 7th · 3-3-3 · GD -1	Away	●●●●● Very tough	15%	0–2	0.65	0.90	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Eastside FC

+26

3.00

WWWWW

-0.18

-0.27

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	PacNW SC (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	8–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	XF (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	5–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valor Soccer · Sat Oct 31 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northwest United (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Seattle United (2nd)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	Washington Premier (5th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	XF (9th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	3–1	86%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Northwest United (6th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle United

+12

2.13

WDWDW

+0.09

-0.25

98%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	2–0
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Eastside FC (1st)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	XF (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northwest United · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Spokane Shadow See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	XF (9th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	93%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Washington Sounders

+11

2.00

WLWDW

-0.34

+0.16

70%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	XF (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	6–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Washington Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Nov 1 vs Northwest United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Whatcom FC Rangers

1.75

WWWWL

-0.24

+0.01

61%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	XF (9th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Spokane Shadow · Sun Nov 1 at Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black · Sat Nov 7 at Central Washington Sounders See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	XF (9th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Washington Premier

1.67

WLLWD

+0.03

-0.06

42%

4.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Northwest United (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Oct 31 vs XF · Sat Nov 7 vs Valor Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	XF (9th)	2–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	XF (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northwest United

1.43

LWWDL

-0.75

+0.32

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	XF (9th)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Seattle United · Sat Oct 31 at Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black · Sun Nov 1 at Central Washington Sounders See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	XF (9th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	70%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black

-1

1.33

WDLWD

+0.46

-0.34

16%

6.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Northwest United (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Spokane Shadow · Sat Oct 31 vs Northwest United · Sun Nov 1 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–0	40%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	XF (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	72%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	XF (9th)	2–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Valor Soccer

-2

1.33

DDWLW

+0.32

-0.11

6.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–2
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Spokane Shadow · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC · Sat Oct 31 at Central Washington Sounders See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	XF (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	XF (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	5%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

-13

1.00

DLWLW

+0.21

-0.01

9.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Northwest United (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Seattle United (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sat Oct 31 at Washington Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Spokane Shadow

-19

0.33

LLDLL

+0.18

+0.13

11.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	2–8
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	XF (9th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Oct 25 at Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	XF (9th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Washington Premier (5th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	PacNW SC (11th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PacNW SC

-8

0.29

LLLLL

+0.37

-0.06

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at XF · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 7 at Columbia Premier SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	XF (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	XF (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbia Premier SC

-19

0.29

DDLLL

-0.02

+0.26

11.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	XF (9th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Spokane Shadow · Sat Nov 7 vs PacNW SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Washington Premier (5th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	XF (9th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	9%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	PacNW SC (11th)	0–1	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.