Whatcom FC Rangers

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU16 · 12 teams · Whatcom FC Rangers (all teams)

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4th

4-2-2 record · 8 played

1.75 points per game

+8 goal diff · 18–10

WWWWLlast 5

60% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3

-0.24 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 03:00 PM

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Whatcom FC Rangers
4th · 1.75 PPG

Spokane Shadow
10th · 0.33 PPG

Spokane Shadow Polo Fields, Field 10 ↗ far trip

78% 13% 8%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.8 against · 2.49 expected points)

Season so far	Whatcom FC Rangers	Spokane Shadow
Position	4th	10th
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-2	0-3-6
Points per game	1.75	0.33
Goals for / game	2.3	0.7
Goals against / game	1.3	2.8
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	0	4
Form (recent first)	L W W W W	L L D L L
Biggest win	4–0 at XF	—
Worst loss	1–2 vs Seattle United	2–8 vs Eastside FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.65	-1.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.24	+0.18

Already played this season: Sat Oct 10 4–1 vs Spokane Shadow (W)

Common opponents: PacNW SC — we 2–2; they 1–1. Central Washington Sounders — we 2–0; they 0–5, 0–1. XF — we 4–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Spokane Shadow average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 4 of 9.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Spokane Shadow concede 2.8/game; worst result 2–8 vs Eastside FC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Spokane Shadow Polo Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Spokane Shadow game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Whatcom FC Rangers – Spokane Shadow) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.89 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.89 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.67 PPG	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 2
Loss 1.56 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

60% top 4

40% below the top 4

4.3 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 5%
3rd 26%
4th 28%
5th 22%
6th 12%
7th 5%
8th 1%
9th <1%
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Eastside FC	3.00 (+1.25)	1st (2.70)	52 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Seattle United	2.13 (+0.38)	2nd (2.13)	33 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3	Central Washington Sounders	2.00 (+0.25)	3rd (1.82)	30 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

34 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Whatcom FC Rangers to Spokane Shadow through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

28 favour us

3 even

3 favour them

+3.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.01 · 5th hardest of 12

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM	Spokane Shadow 10th · 0-3-6 · GD -19	Away far trip Spokane Shadow Polo Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	2–0	2.49	1.83	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 09:00 AM	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black 7th · 3-3-3 · GD -1	Away far trip Kirby Billingsley Hydro Park- 2800 SR28 East Wenat	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	1–1	1.57	1.81	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Central Washington Sounders 3rd · 5-1-2 · GD +11	Away far trip Chesterly Park	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–2	1.20	1.75	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Columbia Premier SC 12th · 0-2-5 · GD -19	Away far trip Harmony Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	2–0	2.65	1.83	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 TBD	XF 9th · 2-1-4 · GD -13	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	79%	3–0	2.51	1.88	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 TBD	Washington Premier 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.73	1.87	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 TBD	PacNW SC 11th · 0-2-5 · GD -8	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	2–0	2.31	1.90	Bank it
Sun Jan 10 09:00 AM	Seattle United 2nd · 5-2-1 · GD +12	Away far trip TBD	●●●●○ Tough	25%	1–2	0.97	1.84	Upside
Sat Jan 16 TBD	Columbia Premier SC 12th · 0-2-5 · GD -19	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	3–0	2.76	1.89	Bank it
Sun Jan 24 03:00 PM	Northwest United 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +2	Away Skagit Valley College	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	1.88	Swing game
Sun Jan 31 03:00 PM	Eastside FC 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +26	Away far trip PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–3	0.52	1.81	Upside
Sun Feb 14 TBD	Northwest United 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	1–1	1.83	1.81	Swing game
Sat Feb 20 TBD	Eastside FC 1st · 8-0-0 · GD +26	Home	●●●●● Very tough	19%	1–2	0.74	1.76	Upside
Sat Feb 20 TBD	Washington Premier 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +3	Away	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.44	1.74	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Eastside FC

+26

3.00

WWWWW

-0.18

-0.27

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	PacNW SC (11th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	8–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	XF (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	5–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valor Soccer · Sat Oct 31 vs Columbia Premier SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Northwest United (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Seattle United (2nd)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	Washington Premier (5th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	XF (9th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Feb 13	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	3–1	86%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Northwest United (6th)	2–0	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Seattle United

+12

2.13

WDWDW

+0.09

-0.25

99%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	2–0
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Eastside FC (1st)	3–4
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	XF (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northwest United · Sat Oct 31 vs PacNW SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Spokane Shadow See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Dec 20	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	XF (9th)	3–0	80%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	93%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Washington Sounders

+11

2.00

WLWDW

-0.34

+0.16

71%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	XF (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	6–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Washington Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Nov 1 vs Northwest United See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	43%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Whatcom FC Rangers

1.75

WWWWL

-0.24

+0.01

60%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	XF (9th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Spokane Shadow · Sun Nov 1 at Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black · Sat Nov 7 at Central Washington Sounders See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	XF (9th)	3–0	79%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Washington Premier

1.67

WLLWD

+0.03

-0.06

43%

4.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Northwest United (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	4–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Oct 31 vs XF · Sat Nov 7 vs Valor Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	XF (9th)	2–1	76%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	XF (9th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	3–0	82%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northwest United

1.43

LWWDL

-0.75

+0.32

7.1

L	Sun Oct 18	at	XF (9th)	1–2
D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Seattle United · Sat Oct 31 at Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black · Sun Nov 1 at Central Washington Sounders See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0	62%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	XF (9th)	1–0	63%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	70%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black

-1

1.33

WDLWD

+0.46

-0.34

15%

6.0

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Northwest United (6th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Spokane Shadow · Sat Oct 31 vs Northwest United · Sun Nov 1 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Northwest United (6th)	1–0	40%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	XF (9th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	72%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Feb 14	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	XF (9th)	2–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Valor Soccer

-2

1.33

DDWLW

+0.32

-0.11

6.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	PacNW SC (11th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–2
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Spokane Shadow · Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC · Sat Oct 31 at Central Washington Sounders See all 16 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Northwest United (6th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Jan 9	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	XF (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Jan 24	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	XF (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Feb 13	at	Eastside FC (1st)	1–3	5%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	2–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

-13

1.00

DLWLW

+0.21

-0.01

9.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Northwest United (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Seattle United (2nd)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sat Oct 31 at Washington Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Jan 16	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Jan 17	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Jan 23	at	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Spokane Shadow

-19

0.33

LLDLL

+0.18

+0.13

11.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	2–8
D	Sun Oct 11	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	XF (9th)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Oct 25 at Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	52%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	XF (9th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Jan 9	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	Washington Premier (5th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	PacNW SC (11th)	0–1	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PacNW SC

-8

0.29

LLLLL

+0.37

-0.06

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at XF · Sat Oct 31 at Seattle United · Sat Nov 7 at Columbia Premier SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	XF (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Dec 20	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Jan 10	at	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	XF (9th)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Jan 24	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Jan 31	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Feb 14	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	Columbia Premier SC (12th)	1–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbia Premier SC

-19

0.29

DDLLL

-0.02

+0.26

11.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Washington Premier (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Northwest United (6th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	XF (9th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Spokane Shadow (10th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC · Sun Nov 1 at Spokane Shadow · Sat Nov 7 vs PacNW SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Eastside FC (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Spokane Shadow (10th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PacNW SC (11th)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–2	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black (7th)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Washington Premier (5th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	XF (9th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Jan 10	vs	Northwest United (6th)	0–1	9%
·	Sat Jan 16	at	Whatcom FC Rangers (4th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Jan 17	at	Seattle United (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Jan 23	vs	Eastside FC (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Jan 31	vs	Central Washington Sounders (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	Valor Soccer (8th)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	PacNW SC (11th)	0–1	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.70 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.