Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black

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Wenatchee Apple Bowl, field 1 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.2 for, 0.7 against · 2.32 expected points)

Common opponents: Eastside FC — we 0–1, 0–3; they 2–8. Columbia Premier SC — we 2–0; they 0–0. Whatcom FC Rangers — we 0–1; they 1–4. Northwest United — we 3–2; they 0–0. PacNW SC — we 2–1; they 1–1. Washington Premier — we 1–1; they 1–4.

• They struggle to score
  Spokane Shadow average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 4 of 9.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  Spokane Shadow concede 2.8/game; worst result 2–8 vs Eastside FC.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 vs Eastside FC, 0–1 at Whatcom FC Rangers, 0–3 at Eastside FC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–0.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• What a win does
  Northwest United sit 6th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.33.

  A point moves us above Northwest United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the Spokane Shadow game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Wenatchee FA -RL B10/11 Black – Spokane Shadow) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd 1%
3. 3rd 5%
4. 4th 11%
5. 5th 19%
6. 6th 28%
7. 7th 21%
8. 8th 13%
9. 9th 2%
10. 10th <1%
11. 11th
12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.32 PPG if we win out).