Valor Soccer
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU14 · 12 teams · Valor Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–6 (expected goals 0.7 for, 6.3 against · 0.03 expected points)
| Season so far | Valor Soccer | Eastside FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-6 | 6-1-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 2.71 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 5.8 | 1.1 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L L | D W W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 7–1 vs Washington Premier |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs Northwest United FC ENCL RL | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -3.43 | +1.87 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.25 | -0.32 |
Common opponents: Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black — we 0–4; they 3–1, 3–1. Spokane Shadow — we 2–3; they 5–0. Seattle United — we 0–7; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Eastside FC score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.3.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–8 vs Northwest United FC ENCL RL, 0–5 at Whatcom FC Rangers, 0–4 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black, 0–8 at PacNW SC, 0–7 at Seattle United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 1%; a draw (1%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eastside FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Valor Soccer – Eastside FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Win 0.43 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Draw 0.14 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 12th— holds | 12th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–6 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th 18%
- 12th 82%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PacNW SC | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.35) | 66 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Eastside FC | 2.71 (+2.71) | 2nd (2.30) | 60 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Seattle United | 2.57 (+2.57) | 3rd (2.24) | 57 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 1.67 (+1.67) | 5th (1.61) | 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 5 | Northwest United FC ENCL RL | 1.50 (+1.50) | 4th (1.70) | 33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 6 | XF | 1.50 (+1.50) | 6th (1.60) | 33 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection |
| 7 | Columbia Premier SC | 1.17 (+1.17) | 8th (1.23) | 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 8 | Central Washington Sounders | 1.14 (+1.14) | 7th (1.37) | 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
| 9 | Washington Premier | 0.80 (+0.80) | 9th (1.17) | 18 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 10 | Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black | 0.75 (+0.75) | 10th (1.07) | 17 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 11 | Spokane Shadow | 0.43 (+0.43) | 11th (0.32) | 10 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
How the results connect
25 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Valor Soccer to Eastside FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.35 · 2nd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Eastside FC 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +20 |
Home Petrovitsky Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.00 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 PM |
Washington Premier 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.17 | 0.02 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Columbia Premier SC 7th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Harmony Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 01:00 PM |
Northwest United FC ENCL RL 5th · 2-3-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Sedro-Woolley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.05 | 0.04 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 04:00 PM |
Spokane Shadow 11th · 1-0-6 · GD -32 |
Home Petrovitsky Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.26 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 17 TBD |
Central Washington Sounders 8th · 2-2-3 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
1–4 | 0.18 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 TBD |
XF 6th · 2-3-1 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.20 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black 10th · 2-0-6 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.24 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC 7th · 2-1-3 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
0–3 | 0.29 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
XF 6th · 2-3-1 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–4 | 0.12 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Whatcom FC Rangers 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 4% |
0–3 | 0.18 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
Eastside FC 2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +20 |
Away PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–7 | 0.01 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Seattle United 3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Washington Premier 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.28 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
PacNW SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.15 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 01:00 PM |
Central Washington Sounders 8th · 2-2-3 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Chesterly Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.10 | 0.15 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PacNW SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 4 | +20 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.08 | +0.11 | 100% | 1.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Central Washington Sounders · Sun Oct 25 at XF · Sat Nov 7 at Columbia Premier SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Eastside FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 8 | +20 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWD | -0.32 | -0.08 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valor Soccer · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United FC ENCL RL · Sat Nov 14 vs Central Washington Sounders See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Seattle United | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 11 | +18 | 18 | 2.57 | LWWWW | -0.26 | -0.12 | 99% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Northwest United FC ENCL RL · Sat Nov 7 vs Spokane Shadow · Sun Dec 6 vs Eastside FC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | WLWWD | +0.07 | -0.06 | 27% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Spokane Shadow · Sun Nov 1 at Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black · Sat Nov 7 at Central Washington Sounders See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Northwest United FC ENCL RL | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 9 | 1.50 | DDWDL | -0.28 | +0.03 | 47% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs Spokane Shadow · Sun Oct 25 vs Seattle United · Sat Nov 7 at Eastside FC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | XF | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 9 | 1.50 | DWDWD | +0.14 | -0.11 | 23% | 5.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PacNW SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black · Sun Nov 8 vs Spokane Shadow See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Columbia Premier SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLDW | -0.38 | +0.18 | 1% | 8.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs PacNW SC · Sun Nov 8 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Nov 14 vs Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Central Washington Sounders | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 8 | 1.14 | WDDLL | +0.34 | -0.18 | 4% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs PacNW SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Washington Premier · Sat Nov 7 vs Whatcom FC Rangers See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Washington Premier | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 4 | 0.80 | WDLLL | +0.33 | -0.03 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Nov 7 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Nov 15 at Whatcom FC Rangers See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 6 | 0.75 | LLLLL | +0.73 | -0.29 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Nov 7 at XF · Sat Nov 14 at Columbia Premier SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Spokane Shadow | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 38 | -32 | 3 | 0.43 | LLLWL | +0.06 | +0.40 | 0% | 11.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Whatcom FC Rangers · Sun Oct 11 at Northwest United FC ENCL RL · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Valor Soccer | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 35 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.25 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside FC · Sat Nov 7 at Washington Premier · Sun Nov 15 at Columbia Premier SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.