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Central Washington Sounders

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU14 · 12 teams · Central Washington Sounders (all teams)

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8th
2-2-3 record · 7 played
1.14 points per game
+1 goal diff · 18–17
WDDLLlast 5
4% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.1
+0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Central Washington Sounders
8th · 1.14 PPG
vs
Washington Premier
9th · 0.80 PPG

Chesterly Park, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.1 against · 1.79 expected points)

Season so farCentral Washington SoundersWashington Premier
Position8th9th
Record (W-D-L)2-2-31-1-3
Points per game1.140.80
Goals for / game2.62.0
Goals against / game2.42.6
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L D D WL L L D W
Biggest win8–0 vs Spokane Shadow6–0 at Spokane Shadow
Worst loss1–6 vs Seattle United1–7 at Eastside FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.12-0.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.34+0.33

Common opponents: Columbia Premier SC — we 4–1; they 1–3. Eastside FC — we 2–4; they 1–7. Spokane Shadow — we 8–0; they 6–0. Northwest United FC ENCL RL — we 2–2; they 1–1. Seattle United — we 1–6; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Whatcom FC Rangers.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 54% / draw 18% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Washington Premier have lost 3 straight (form: WDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    Columbia Premier SC sit 7th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.14.

    A point moves us above Columbia Premier SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Washington Premier game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Washington Sounders – Washington Premier) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.13 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Win
1.38 PPG
7th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 1
Draw
1.13 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
1.00 PPG
9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
4% top 4
96% below the top 4
7.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 27%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PacNW SC 3.00 (+1.86) 1st (2.35) 55 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
2 Eastside FC 2.71 (+1.57) 2nd (2.30) 49 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 Seattle United 2.57 (+1.43) 3rd (2.24) 46 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
4 Whatcom FC Rangers 1.67 (+0.53) 5th (1.61) 28 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Northwest United FC ENCL RL 1.50 (+0.36) 4th (1.70) 24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 XF 1.50 (+0.36) 6th (1.60) 24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Columbia Premier SC 1.17 (+0.03) 8th (1.23) A point next game

How the results connect

18 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Central Washington Sounders to Washington Premier through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 even
5 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–1 8–0 0–6 1–6 2–1 2–4 7–1 4–1 3–1 1–1 2–3 5–1 1–4 1–1 1–0 4–1 Central Washington … 8th Northwest United FC… 5th Spokane Shadow 11th Seattle United 3rd Eastside FC 2nd Columbia Premier SC 7th XF 6th Washington Premier 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 11th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
11:00 AM
no score posted
PacNW SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20
Home
Chesterly Park
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.61 1.08 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
Washington Premier
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Home
Chesterly Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–2 1.79 1.16 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Whatcom FC Rangers
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +4
Home
Chesterly Park
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–2 1.33 1.17 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM
Eastside FC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +20
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 1.11 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD
PacNW SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.40 1.05 Upside
Sun Dec 13
06:00 AM
Seattle United
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–4 0.51 1.01 Upside
Sat Jan 16
01:00 PM
Washington Premier
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.46 1.04 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
TBD
Valor Soccer
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.76 1.15 Bank it
Sun Jan 31
TBD
Columbia Premier SC
7th · 2-1-3 · GD +0
Away
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.35 1.17 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -8
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.61 1.19 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Spokane Shadow
11th · 1-0-6 · GD -32
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.67 1.28 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
11:00 AM
Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -8
Home
Chesterly Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 1.31 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
Northwest United FC ENCL RL
5th · 2-3-1 · GD +10
Home
Chesterly Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.04 1.30 Upside
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
Valor Soccer
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33
Home
Chesterly Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.87 1.37 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PacNW SC 5500 244+20 153.00 WWWWW -1.08 +0.11 100% 1.8
2 Eastside FC 7610 288+20 192.71 WWWWD -0.32 -0.08 99% 2.1
3 Seattle United 7601 2911+18 182.57 LWWWW -0.26 -0.12 99% 2.3
4 Whatcom FC Rangers 6312 128+4 101.67 WLWWD +0.07 -0.06 27% 5.5
5 Northwest United FC ENCL RL 6231 177+10 91.50 DDWDL -0.28 +0.03 47% 4.9
6 XF 6231 107+3 91.50 DWDWD +0.14 -0.11 23% 5.6
7 Columbia Premier SC 6213 1010+0 71.17 LWLDW -0.38 +0.18 1% 8.1
8 Central Washington Sounders 7223 1817+1 81.14 WDDLL +0.34 -0.18 4% 7.1
9 Washington Premier 5113 1013-3 40.80 WDLLL +0.33 -0.03 0% 8.5
10 Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black 8206 1220-8 60.75 LLLLL +0.73 -0.29 0% 9.1
11 Spokane Shadow 7106 638-32 30.43 LLLWL +0.06 +0.40 0% 11.2
12 Valor Soccer 6006 235-33 00.00 LLLLL +0.25 +0.35 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.