TableChase Clubs

Columbia Premier SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northwest BU14 · 12 teams · Columbia Premier Soccer Club (all teams)

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7th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
+0 goal diff · 10–10
LWLDWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.1
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM

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Columbia Premier SC
7th · 1.17 PPG
vs
PacNW SC
1st · 3.00 PPG

Harmony Sports Complex, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.8 against · 0.61 expected points)

Season so farColumbia Premier SCPacNW SC
Position7th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-1-35-0-0
Points per game1.173.00
Goals for / game1.74.8
Goals against / game1.70.8
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W D L W LW W W W W
Biggest win5–1 vs Spokane Shadow8–0 vs Valor Soccer
Worst loss1–4 at Central Washington Sounders—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.07+2.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38-1.08

Common opponents: Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black — we 0–2; they 2–0. Spokane Shadow — we 5–1; they 8–1. Northwest United FC ENCL RL — we 1–1; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    PacNW SC score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    PacNW SC concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 at Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black, 0–1 vs XF.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    PacNW SC have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Columbia Premier SC – PacNW SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2
Win
1.43 PPG
7th— holds 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.14 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
8th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
8.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 28%
  9. 9th 26%
  10. 10th 17%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 PacNW SC 3.00 (+1.83) 1st (2.35) 59 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 Eastside FC 2.71 (+1.54) 2nd (2.30) 53 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Seattle United 2.57 (+1.40) 3rd (2.24) 50 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
4 Whatcom FC Rangers 1.67 (+0.50) 5th (1.61) 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Northwest United FC ENCL RL 1.50 (+0.33) 4th (1.70) 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 XF 1.50 (+0.33) 6th (1.60) 26 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Columbia Premier SC to PacNW SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
12 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–3 5–1 1–8 0–2 0–2 8–0 0–8 3–1 6–0 1–1 3–0 1–4 8–0 0–1 0–0 1–3 3–2 2–2 4–1 Columbia Premier SC 7th Northwest United FC… 5th Spokane Shadow 11th Wenatchee FA -RL B1… 10th Washington Premier 9th Central Washington … 8th XF 6th Valor Soccer 12th Whatcom FC Rangers 4th PacNW SC 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 10 Oct 11

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 3rd hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
PacNW SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.61 1.09 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Whatcom FC Rangers
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +4
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.24 1.11 Upside
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM
Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -8
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.75 1.18 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM
Valor Soccer
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33
Home
Harmony Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.75 1.33 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
11:00 AM
Washington Premier
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●○ Tough
38%
1–1 1.34 1.34 Upside
Sun Dec 13
TBD
XF
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–1 0.99 1.31 Upside
Sat Jan 16
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 0.99 1.28 Upside
Sun Jan 17
06:00 AM
Seattle United
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +18
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.52 1.23 Upside
Sun Jan 31
TBD
Central Washington Sounders
8th · 2-2-3 · GD +1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.45 1.24 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Valor Soccer
12th · 0-0-6 · GD -33
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.61 1.33 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
TBD
PacNW SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +20
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 1.28 Upside
Sat Mar 6
TBD
Northwest United FC ENCL RL
5th · 2-3-1 · GD +10
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.99 1.26 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD
Seattle United
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +18
Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 1.23 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Eastside FC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +20
Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.66 1.20 Upside
Sat May 1
01:00 PM
Eastside FC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +20
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.47 1.17 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD
Spokane Shadow
11th · 1-0-6 · GD -32
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.50 1.23 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 PacNW SC 5500 244+20 153.00 WWWWW -1.08 +0.11 100% 1.9
2 Eastside FC 7610 288+20 192.71 WWWWD -0.32 -0.08 99% 2.0
3 Seattle United 7601 2911+18 182.57 LWWWW -0.26 -0.12 99% 2.3
4 Whatcom FC Rangers 6312 128+4 101.67 WLWWD +0.07 -0.06 24% 5.6
5 Northwest United FC ENCL RL 6231 177+10 91.50 DDWDL -0.28 +0.03 49% 4.9
6 XF 6231 107+3 91.50 DWDWD +0.14 -0.11 24% 5.6
7 Columbia Premier SC 6213 1010+0 71.17 LWLDW -0.38 +0.18 1% 8.1
8 Central Washington Sounders 7223 1817+1 81.14 WDDLL +0.34 -0.18 4% 7.1
9 Washington Premier 5113 1013-3 40.80 WDLLL +0.33 -0.03 1% 8.4
10 Wenatchee FA -RL B12/13 Black 8206 1220-8 60.75 LLLLL +0.73 -0.29 0% 9.1
11 Spokane Shadow 7106 638-32 30.43 LLLWL +0.06 +0.40 0% 11.2
12 Valor Soccer 6006 235-33 00.00 LLLLL +0.25 +0.35 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.