YMS
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 8 teams · Yardley Makefield Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:30 PM
Macclesfield Park, Macclesfield Turf Field ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.9 against · 0.94 expected points)
| Season so far | YMS | Lancaster FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-3 | 1-2-1 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals for / game | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L L | L D W D |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at West-Mont United | 2–1 at Keystone Athletic |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at FC Europa | 1–2 vs FC Copa Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.66 | +0.06 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.01 | +0.12 |
Common opponents: West-Mont United — we 2–1; they 2–2. PA Rush — we 0–2; they 3–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Lancaster FC score 2.0/game — well above the league's 1.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at Eagle FC, 0–3 at FC Europa, 0–2 vs PA Rush.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
PA Rush sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A point moves us above PA Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lancaster FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (YMS – Lancaster FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.80 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.20 PPG |
4th▲ up 4 | 5th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.60 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 28%
- 8th 45%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 2.50 (+1.75) | 1st (2.18) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | FC Copa Academy | 2.00 (+1.25) | 2nd (1.77) | 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | Keystone Athletic | 1.33 (+0.58) | 3rd (1.56) | 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | Lancaster FC | 1.25 (+0.50) | 4th (1.43) | 15 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 5 | Eagle FC | 1.20 (+0.45) | 7th (0.94) | Win next game |
| 6 | West-Mont United | 1.00 (+0.25) | 5th (1.34) | A point next game |
| 7 | PA Rush | 1.00 (+0.25) | 6th (1.00) | A point next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link YMS to Lancaster FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 2nd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:30 PM |
Lancaster FC 4th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Home Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.94 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
FC Copa Academy 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Rutgers University University Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
0–1 | 0.67 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 06:00 PM |
Keystone Athletic 3rd · 1-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.83 | 0.78 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.51 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Lancaster FC 4th · 1-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.73 | 0.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.83 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Keystone Athletic 3rd · 1-1-1 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
0–1 | 0.66 | 0.76 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
PA Rush 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 0.79 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Eagle FC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–0 | 1.48 | 0.84 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Europa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.22 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Copa Academy | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 | 2.00 | WDDW | +0.18 | -0.11 | 92% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs YMS · Sat Nov 21 at West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Keystone Athletic | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | -0.13 | -0.01 | 80% | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United · Sat Nov 14 at YMS See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | +0.12 | -0.04 | 61% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Eagle FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLLW | +0.13 | +0.11 | 5% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | +0.05 | -0.01 | 47% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PA Rush | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.33 | +0.21 | 11% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | YMS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.01 | +0.14 | 4% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.40 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.