Keystone Athletic

ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 8 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)

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3rd

1-1-1 record · 3 played

1.33 points per game

+2 goal diff · 4–2

LDWlast 3

77% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5

-0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:45 AM

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Keystone Athletic
3rd · 1.33 PPG

FC Europa
1st · 2.50 PPG

Moravian Academy, Field 1 ↗

29% 26% 45%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.5 against · 1.13 expected points)

Season so far	Keystone Athletic	FC Europa
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	1-1-1	3-1-0
Points per game	1.33	2.50
Goals for / game	1.3	2.8
Goals against / game	0.7	0.8
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W D L	W D W W
Biggest win	3–0 at Eagle FC	4–0 vs Eagle FC
Worst loss	1–2 vs Lancaster FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.32	+1.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.13	-0.22

Common opponents: FC Copa Academy — we 0–0; they 1–1. Eagle FC — we 3–0; they 4–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
FC Europa score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at FC Copa Academy.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 29%; a draw (26%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Europa game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic – FC Europa) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.25 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 4
Win 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.25 PPG	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 4
Loss 1.00 PPG	6th▼ down 3	5th▼ down 2	8th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st

77% top 4

23% below the top 4

3.5 average finish

1st 5%
2nd 19%
3rd 29%
4th 24%
5th 14%
6th 6%
7th 2%
8th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Europa	2.50 (+1.17)	1st (2.18)	31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2	FC Copa Academy	2.00 (+0.67)	2nd (1.77)	24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Keystone Athletic to FC Europa through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

-0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM	FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +8	Home Moravian Academy	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.13	1.28	Upside
Sat Nov 7 04:30 PM	West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +1	Home Charles Chrin Community Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	1.36	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 06:00 PM	YMS 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Macclesfield Park · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	1–0	1.90	1.45	Swing game
Sun Nov 15 04:30 PM	PA Rush 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Home Charles Chrin Community Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–0	1.93	1.52	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 TBD	FC Copa Academy 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +2	Home	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–0	1.44	1.51	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Eagle FC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -6	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	1–0	2.14	1.58	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM	PA Rush 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Quakertown High School	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.71	1.59	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 02:30 PM	FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +8	Away far trip The Proving Grounds	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.92	1.53	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	YMS 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	1–0	2.10	1.58	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +1	Away	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.43	1.57	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Lancaster FC 4th · 1-2-1 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	42%	1–1	1.49	1.56	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Europa

2.50

WWDW

-0.22

-0.09

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	3–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	YMS (8th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PA Rush (7th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	YMS (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eagle FC (5th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	1–1	53%
·	Sat May 1	at	West-Mont United (6th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PA Rush (7th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Copa Academy

2.00

WDDW

+0.18

-0.11

93%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Europa (1st)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Eagle FC (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs YMS · Sat Nov 21 at West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	PA Rush (7th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	YMS (8th)	1–0	61%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	West-Mont United (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	FC Europa (1st)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	YMS (8th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat May 1	at	PA Rush (7th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	1–0	63%
·	Sat May 15	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	1–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic

1.33

LDW

-0.13

-0.01

77%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Eagle FC (5th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United · Sat Nov 14 at YMS See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Europa (1st)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	YMS (8th)	1–0	54%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	PA Rush (7th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–0	38%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PA Rush (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Europa (1st)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	vs	YMS (8th)	1–0	62%
·	Sat May 8	at	West-Mont United (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lancaster FC

1.25

DWDL

+0.12

-0.04

63%

4.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	West-Mont United (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 12	at	PA Rush (7th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	YMS (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	FC Europa (1st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush (7th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS (8th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun May 2	at	Eagle FC (5th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Europa (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eagle FC

-6

1.20

WLLLW

+0.13

+0.11

6.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	PA Rush (7th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Europa (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	YMS (8th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West-Mont United (6th)	0–2	16%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Europa (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PA Rush (7th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun May 9	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	1–1	22%
·	Sat May 15	at	YMS (8th)	0–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West-Mont United

1.00

WLDL

+0.05

-0.01

50%

4.5

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Europa (1st)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	YMS (8th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	PA Rush (7th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	2–0	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PA Rush (7th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS (8th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Europa (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 9	at	Eagle FC (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–1	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush

-2

1.00

DLWL

-0.33

+0.21

6.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Eagle FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	YMS (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Europa (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	West-Mont United (6th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	0–1	25%
·	Sat May 8	at	YMS (8th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 15	at	FC Europa (1st)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS

-5

0.75

LLWL

+0.01

+0.14

7.0

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	PA Rush (7th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	West-Mont United (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Europa (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Eagle FC (5th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Europa (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lancaster FC (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	West-Mont United (6th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat May 1	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	0–1	14%
·	Sat May 8	vs	PA Rush (7th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eagle FC (5th)	1–0	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.40 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.