Lancaster FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU14 · 8 teams · Lancaster FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:30 PM
Macclesfield Park, Macclesfield Turf Field ↗ · turf far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.2 against · 1.83 expected points)
| Season so far | Lancaster FC | YMS |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-1 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L D W D | L W L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Keystone Athletic | 2–1 at West-Mont United |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs FC Copa Academy | 0–3 at FC Europa |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.06 | -0.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.12 | +0.01 |
Common opponents: PA Rush — we 3–3; they 0–2. West-Mont United — we 2–2; they 2–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
YMS average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 3 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 23% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at Macclesfield Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Keystone Athletic sit 3rd on 1.33 PPG; we are on 1.25.A point moves us above Keystone Athletic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the YMS game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lancaster FC – YMS) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.20 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.60 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.20 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 11%
- 3rd 21%
- 4th 29%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 4%
- 8th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 2.50 (+1.25) | 1st (2.18) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 2 | FC Copa Academy | 2.00 (+0.75) | 2nd (1.77) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 3 | Keystone Athletic | 1.33 (+0.08) | 3rd (1.56) | A point next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Lancaster FC to YMS through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 05:30 PM |
YMS 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.83 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Eagle FC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home Foundation Field at Overlook |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.12 | 1.49 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.86 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
PA Rush 7th · 1-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 1.46 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
YMS 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.07 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–1 | 1.50 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 2nd · 2-2-0 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.03 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Eagle FC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.88 | 1.51 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
YSC Sports |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.63 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Keystone Athletic 3rd · 1-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.27 | 1.43 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Europa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 10 | 2.50 | WWDW | -0.22 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | FC Copa Academy | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 8 | 2.00 | WDDW | +0.18 | -0.11 | 92% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs YMS · Sat Nov 21 at West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Keystone Athletic | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | LDW | -0.13 | -0.01 | 77% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United · Sat Nov 14 at YMS See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 5 | 1.25 | DWDL | +0.12 | -0.04 | 63% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Eagle FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLLW | +0.13 | +0.11 | 5% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | +0.05 | -0.01 | 50% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | PA Rush | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | -0.33 | +0.21 | 10% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | YMS | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +0.01 | +0.14 | 3% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.40 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.