West-Mont United
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 8 teams · West-Mont United S.A (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
The Far Post, Outdoor Turf 1 ↗ · turf
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.7 against · 2.52 expected points)
| Season so far | West-Mont United | Eagle FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L D | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 vs Lancaster FC | — |
| Worst loss | 2–3 vs YMS | 0–4 vs PA Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.31 | -1.37 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.17 | +0.67 |
Common opponents: PA Rush — we 2–2; they 0–4. YMS — we 2–3; they 1–3. FC Europa — we 0–1; they 0–2.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Eagle FC average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 4 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Eagle FC concede 2.6/game; worst result 0–4 vs PA Rush.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at FC Europa.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Eagle FC have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Eagle FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West-Mont United – Eagle FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.40 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 37%
- 5th 30%
- 6th 24%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.43) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | Keystone Athletic | 3.00 (+2.00) | 3rd (1.98) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | PA Rush | 2.50 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.16) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | FC Copa Academy | 1.50 (+0.50) | 6th (1.33) | 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 5 | YMS | 1.50 (+0.50) | 5th (1.35) | 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
How the results connect
11 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link West-Mont United to Eagle FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 7th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Eagle FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.52 | 1.30 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Keystone Athletic 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Charles Chrin Community Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.94 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM |
FC Copa Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
PA Rush 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Lancaster FC 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–0 | 2.53 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
YMS 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–1 | 1.70 | 1.42 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Europa 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–2 | 0.70 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Keystone Athletic 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +5 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Eagle FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 1.42 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 1.42 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.36 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Keystone Athletic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.11 | +0.22 | 95% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United · Sat Nov 14 at YMS See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | PA Rush | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | -0.85 | +0.06 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | FC Copa Academy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -0.33 | +0.17 | 30% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs YMS · Sat Nov 21 at West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | YMS | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.51 | -0.08 | 30% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | +0.17 | -0.09 | 46% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Eagle FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.67 | -0.01 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.57 | +0.17 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.