FC Europa
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 8 teams · FC Europa (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM
Moravian Academy, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.1 for, 0.7 against · 1.65 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Europa | Keystone Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-0 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs YMS | 3–0 at Eagle FC |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.41 | +0.64 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | -1.11 |
Common opponents: Eagle FC — we 2–0; they 3–0. FC Copa Academy — we 4–0; they 1–0.
Game plan
-
Hard to break down
Keystone Athletic concede only 0.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 44% / draw 31% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
They arrive in form
Keystone Athletic have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Moravian Academy.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Keystone Athletic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Europa – Keystone Athletic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.60 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.40 PPG |
3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 3rd▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 68%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th <1%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link FC Europa to Keystone Athletic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM |
Keystone Athletic 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
Moravian Academy |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–0 | 1.65 | 2.73 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM |
PA Rush 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 2.52 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Lancaster FC 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
3–0 | 2.82 | 2.56 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
YMS 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.44 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 10:30 AM |
FC Copa Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.36 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Eagle FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -12 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
2–0 | 2.69 | 2.54 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 12:45 PM |
Keystone Athletic 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +5 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.84 | 2.48 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–0 | 2.09 | 2.45 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 09:30 AM |
Lancaster FC 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -15 |
Home YSC Sports |
●○○○○ Favorable | 95% |
4–0 | 2.89 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 09:00 AM |
PA Rush 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home YSC Sports |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.72 | 2.43 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.36 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Keystone Athletic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.11 | +0.22 | 95% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United · Sat Nov 14 at YMS See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PA Rush | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | -0.85 | +0.06 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Copa Academy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -0.33 | +0.17 | 30% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs YMS · Sat Nov 21 at West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | YMS | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.51 | -0.08 | 29% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | +0.17 | -0.09 | 47% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eagle FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.67 | -0.01 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.57 | +0.17 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.