Keystone Athletic
ECNL Regional League Boys · Northeast BU13 · 8 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:30 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.7 for, 1.1 against · 1.04 expected points)
| Season so far | Keystone Athletic | FC Europa |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 4-0-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | W W W W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Eagle FC | 4–0 vs YMS |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.64 | +1.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.11 | -0.36 |
Common opponents: FC Copa Academy — we 1–0; they 4–0. Eagle FC — we 3–0; they 2–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
FC Europa score 2.8/game — well above the league's 1.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
FC Europa concede only 0.0/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (31%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
FC Europa have won 4 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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What a win does
FC Europa sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.A win moves us above FC Europa on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Europa game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic – FC Europa) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 2.25 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 | 1st▲ up 1 |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 8%
- 2nd 24%
- 3rd 52%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 4%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 3.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.43) | Win next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Keystone Athletic to FC Europa through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.22 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 12:30 PM |
FC Europa 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Home Moravian Academy |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
0–1 | 1.04 | 2.51 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Charles Chrin Community Center |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.82 | 2.37 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM |
YMS 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Away far trip
Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
1–1 | 1.97 | 2.30 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 03:00 PM |
PA Rush 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +13 |
Home Charles Chrin Community Center |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 2.15 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 4th · 2-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–0 | 1.94 | 2.12 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Eagle FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
2–0 | 2.53 | 2.17 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
PA Rush 3rd · 3-1-0 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 2.05 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 12:45 PM |
FC Europa 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +11 |
Away far trip
The Proving Grounds |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
0–1 | 0.87 | 1.94 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
YMS 5th · 2-0-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.19 | 1.96 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
West-Mont United 6th · 1-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.59 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Lancaster FC 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -15 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
2–0 | 2.56 | 1.98 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Europa | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.36 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush · Sun Nov 15 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Keystone Athletic | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.11 | +0.22 | 95% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United · Sat Nov 14 at YMS See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PA Rush | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3 | +13 | 10 | 2.50 | WDWW | -0.85 | +0.06 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Copa Academy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | -0.33 | +0.17 | 30% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs YMS · Sat Nov 21 at West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | YMS | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLWL | +0.51 | -0.08 | 31% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4 | 1.00 | DLWL | +0.17 | -0.09 | 44% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eagle FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 13 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.67 | -0.01 | 0% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +0.57 | +0.17 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC · Sun Nov 15 vs FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.