TableChase Clubs

Solano Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU15 · 23 teams · Solano Surf (all teams)

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23rd
0-0-6 record · 6 played
0.00 points per game
-24 goal diff · 3–27
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 21.8
+1.09 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:05 PM

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Solano Surf
23rd · 0.00 PPG
at
Legends FC
20th · 0.14 PPG

Andrew Hill High School, Turf ↗ · turf far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.3 against · 0.60 expected points)

Season so farSolano SurfLegends FC
Position23rd20th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-60-1-6
Points per game0.000.14
Goals for / game0.51.6
Goals against / game4.53.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless41
Form (recent first)L L L L LL L L D L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–6 vs Sheriffs FC2–6 vs South Valley United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.28-1.19
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.09+0.64

Common opponents: Sheriffs FC — we 0–6; they 1–3. El Camino FC Salinas - Red — we 0–4; they 0–4.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Legends FC concede 3.7/game; worst result 2–6 vs South Valley United Soccer Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at SF United FC, 0–2 vs Walnut Creek Surf, 0–6 vs Sheriffs FC, 0–4 at El Camino FC Salinas - Red.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Legends FC have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:05 PM at Andrew Hill High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    East County Revolution FC sit 22nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above East County Revolution FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Solano Surf – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
23rd— holds 23rd— holds 23rd— holds
Win
0.43 PPG
20th▲ up 3 19th▲ up 4 21st▲ up 2
Draw
0.14 PPG
21st▲ up 2 21st▲ up 2 22nd▲ up 1
Loss
0.00 PPG
23rd— holds 23rd— holds 23rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 23rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
21.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th 1%
  19. 19th 3%
  20. 20th 8%
  21. 21st 24%
  22. 22nd 29%
  23. 23rd 35%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 CVFA 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.76) 45 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Walnut Creek Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.47) 45 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Sheriffs FC 2.50 (+2.50) 3rd (2.31) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 2.29 (+2.29) 4th (2.24) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 South Valley United Soccer Club 2.17 (+2.17) 6th (2.06) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6 Palo Alto SC 2.14 (+2.14) 5th (2.08) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7 Stockton TLJ FC 2.14 (+2.14) 7th (2.03) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
8 Sierra Nevada 2.14 (+2.14) 8th (2.01) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
9 El Camino FC Salinas - Red 1.86 (+1.86) 10th (1.70) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
10 Union FC 1.86 (+1.86) 9th (1.71) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
11 SF United FC 1.67 (+1.67) 12th (1.44) 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 Turlock Academica Jrs 1.43 (+1.43) 13th (1.38) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
13 San Carlos United SC 1.33 (+1.33) 11th (1.57) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
14 Clovis Crossfire 1.33 (+1.33) 17th (1.05) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
15 South Valley Chivas 1.29 (+1.29) 15th (1.13) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
16 San Ramon FC 1.17 (+1.17) 16th (1.05) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
17 JSC Soccer Club - JSC 1.00 (+1.00) 14th (1.16) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
18 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 0.50 (+0.50) 20th (0.58) 8 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection
19 Livermore Fusion SC 0.50 (+0.50) 19th (0.71) 8 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
20 Legends FC 0.14 (+0.14) 18th (0.74) Already ahead
21 East Bay United 0.00 (+0.00) 21st (0.30) Already ahead
22 East County Revolution FC 0.00 (+0.00) 23rd (0.24) Already ahead

How the results connect

11 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Solano Surf to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 even
5 favour them
-0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 4–0 0–6 3–1 2–4 1–0 2–1 0–4 0–0 1–7 5–1 1–1 1–1 2–0 1–2 6–2 0–2 2–1 1–0 3–2 3–0 7–4 Solano Surf 23rd El Camino FC Salina… 9th Sheriffs FC 3rd Union FC 10th SF United FC 11th CVFA 1st Walnut Creek Surf 2nd Palo Alto SC 6th Clovis Crossfire 14th South Valley United… 5th Diablo Valley Futbo… 4th Central Valley Prem… 18th Legends FC 20th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 12th 23rd Aug 15 Aug 22 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 10th hardest of 23

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:05 PM
Legends FC
20th · 0-1-6 · GD -15
Away far trip
Andrew Hill High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.60 0.09 Upside
Sat Oct 31
12:00 PM
East County Revolution FC
22nd · 0-0-7 · GD -22
Away
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC)
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 0.23 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:35 AM
South Valley United Soccer Club
5th · 4-1-1 · GD +9
Home
Fairfield High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.20 0.22 Upside
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM
South Valley Chivas
15th · 3-0-4 · GD -5
Home
Octo Inn Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.76 0.28 Upside
Sat Apr 3
10:00 AM
Diablo Valley Futbol Club
4th · 5-1-1 · GD +17
Home
Octo Inn Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.13 0.26 Upside
Sat Apr 10
02:00 PM
Stockton TLJ FC
7th · 5-0-2 · GD +11
Away far trip
Stockton Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.10 0.25 Upside
Sat Apr 17
04:00 PM
JSC Soccer Club - JSC
17th · 2-0-4 · GD -2
Away far trip
Red Morton
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.37 0.26 Upside
Sun Apr 25
10:00 AM
Palo Alto SC
6th · 5-0-2 · GD +15
Home
Octo Inn Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.14 0.25 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Turlock Academica Jrs
12th · 3-1-3 · GD -1
Home
Octo Inn Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.56 0.27 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 CVFA 6600 336+27 183.00 WWWWW -0.21 -0.39 100% 1.2
2 Walnut Creek Surf 6600 194+15 183.00 WWWWW -0.61 -0.13 88% 2.8
3 Sheriffs FC 6501 205+15 152.50 WWWWL -0.86 -0.14 71% 3.9
4 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 7511 225+17 162.29 LWWWD -0.53 -0.38 55% 4.5
5 South Valley United Soccer Club 6411 167+9 132.17 WWDLW +0.43 -0.31 23% 6.3
6 Palo Alto SC 7502 227+15 152.14 LWWLW -0.41 +0.09 25% 6.0
7 Stockton TLJ FC 7502 209+11 152.14 WWWWW -0.03 -0.09 20% 6.5
8 Sierra Nevada 7502 168+8 152.14 WLWWW +0.27 -0.23 16% 6.7
9 El Camino FC Salinas - Red 7412 149+5 131.86 LWLDW +0.08 +0.20 2% 9.7
10 Union FC 7412 1111+0 131.86 LWWWL +0.04 -0.24 1% 9.8
11 SF United FC 6312 1110+1 101.67 WWLDL -0.06 +0.16 0% 12.1
12 Turlock Academica Jrs 7313 1112-1 101.43 WWWLL +0.06 -0.20 0% 12.8
13 San Carlos United SC 6222 149+5 81.33 WWDLD +0.68 +0.14 0% 10.8
14 Clovis Crossfire 6222 912-3 81.33 LWDLW -0.40 +0.69 0% 15.8
15 South Valley Chivas 7304 1015-5 91.29 LLWLL -0.55 +0.28 0% 15.1
16 San Ramon FC 6213 918-9 71.17 WLLWL -0.28 +0.03 0% 15.8
17 JSC Soccer Club - JSC 6204 911-2 61.00 LLLWW -0.34 +0.25 0% 14.6
18 Central Valley Premier FC -RL 6105 920-11 30.50 LWLLL +0.03 +0.64 0% 19.5
19 Livermore Fusion SC 6105 825-17 30.50 LLLLW +0.35 -0.30 0% 18.6
20 Legends FC 7016 1126-15 10.14 LDLLL +0.64 -0.67 0% 18.2
21 East Bay United 6006 221-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.67 -0.05 0% 21.5
22 East County Revolution FC 7007 527-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.20 +0.52 0% 22.0
23 Solano Surf 6006 327-24 00.00 LLLLL +1.09 +0.06 0% 21.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.