San Carlos United SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU15 · 23 teams · San Carlos United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.8 for, 0.8 against · 2.75 expected points)
| Season so far | San Carlos United SC | East Bay United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 13th | 21st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-2 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | D L D W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–1 at JSC Soccer Club - JSC | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs El Camino FC Salinas - Red | 1–5 vs Walnut Creek Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.76 | -1.97 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.68 | +0.67 |
Common opponents: JSC Soccer Club - JSC — we 5–1; they 0–4. South Valley United Soccer Club — we 1–1; they 0–3. Diablo Valley Futbol Club — we 1–1; they 0–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
East Bay United average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
East Bay United concede 3.5/game; worst result 1–5 vs Walnut Creek Surf.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 89% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
East Bay United have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Turlock Academica Jrs sit 12th on 1.43 PPG; we are on 1.33.A point moves us above Turlock Academica Jrs on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the East Bay United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Carlos United SC – East Bay United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.57 PPG |
12th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 2 | 13th— holds |
| Win 1.57 PPG |
12th▲ up 1 | 11th▲ up 2 | 13th— holds |
| Draw 1.29 PPG |
14th▼ down 1 | 14th▼ down 1 | 16th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.14 PPG |
16th▼ down 3 | 14th▼ down 1 | 17th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 1%
- 7th 3%
- 8th 6%
- 9th 12%
- 10th 20%
- 11th 21%
- 12th 16%
- 13th 12%
- 14th 5%
- 15th 2%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th
- 20th
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CVFA | 3.00 (+1.67) | 1st (2.76) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 3.00 (+1.67) | 2nd (2.47) | 37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Sheriffs FC | 2.50 (+1.17) | 3rd (2.31) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 2.29 (+0.96) | 4th (2.24) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.17 (+0.84) | 6th (2.06) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | Palo Alto SC | 2.14 (+0.81) | 5th (2.08) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 7 | Stockton TLJ FC | 2.14 (+0.81) | 7th (2.03) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 8 | Sierra Nevada | 2.14 (+0.81) | 8th (2.01) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 9 | El Camino FC Salinas - Red | 1.86 (+0.53) | 10th (1.70) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 10 | Union FC | 1.86 (+0.53) | 9th (1.71) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 11 | SF United FC | 1.67 (+0.34) | 12th (1.44) | 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 12 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 1.43 (+0.10) | 13th (1.38) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link San Carlos United SC to East Bay United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.14 · 8th hardest of 23
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 11 06:00 PM no score posted |
Palo Alto SC 6th · 5-0-2 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Mayfield Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.27 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 02:00 PM |
East Bay United 21st · 0-0-6 · GD -19 |
Home Highlands Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
3–0 | 2.75 | 1.46 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
CVFA 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +27 |
Away far trip
Pitman High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Stockton TLJ FC 7th · 5-0-2 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Turlock Academica Jrs 12th · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.02 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:55 AM |
Legends FC 20th · 0-1-6 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Andrew Hill High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.30 | 1.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
SF United FC 11th · 3-1-2 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 PM |
East County Revolution FC 22nd · 0-0-7 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Sunset Sports Complex (SSC) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–1 | 2.65 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Sheriffs FC 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 1.57 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CVFA | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 6 | +27 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.21 | -0.39 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs San Carlos United SC · Sat Feb 27 vs East County Revolution FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | -0.13 | 85% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sheriffs FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.86 | -0.14 | 71% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC · Sat Nov 7 at Palo Alto SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 | 2.29 | LWWWD | -0.53 | -0.38 | 58% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at El Camino FC Salinas - Red See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDLW | +0.43 | -0.31 | 20% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sun Nov 1 vs Clovis Crossfire See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Palo Alto SC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWLW | -0.41 | +0.09 | 25% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 vs San Carlos United SC · Sat Oct 24 at JSC Soccer Club - JSC · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Stockton TLJ FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWWW | -0.03 | -0.09 | 21% | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Sierra Nevada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 | 2.14 | WLWWW | +0.27 | -0.23 | 17% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | El Camino FC Salinas - Red | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 13 | 1.86 | LWLDW | +0.08 | +0.20 | 2% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Mar 13 at Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Union FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 13 | 1.86 | LWWWL | +0.04 | -0.24 | 1% | 9.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs JSC Soccer Club - JSC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SF United FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLDL | -0.06 | +0.16 | 0% | 12.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sun Nov 8 at JSC Soccer Club - JSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | WWWLL | +0.06 | -0.20 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Sierra Nevada See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | San Carlos United SC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 8 | 1.33 | WWDLD | +0.68 | +0.14 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 11 at Palo Alto SC · Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Nov 7 at CVFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Clovis Crossfire | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 | 1.33 | LWDLW | -0.40 | +0.69 | 0% | 15.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs CVFA · Sun Nov 1 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | South Valley Chivas | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWLL | -0.55 | +0.28 | 0% | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs El Camino FC Salinas - Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWL | -0.28 | +0.03 | 0% | 15.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sierra Nevada · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | JSC Soccer Club - JSC | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | -0.34 | +0.25 | 0% | 14.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Palo Alto SC · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.03 | +0.64 | 0% | 19.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 at South Valley Chivas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Livermore Fusion SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 25 | -17 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLW | +0.35 | -0.30 | 0% | 18.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sun Oct 25 at Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Legends FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 1 | 0.14 | LDLLL | +0.64 | -0.67 | 0% | 18.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Sierra Nevada · Sat Nov 7 vs East Bay United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | East Bay United | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.67 | -0.05 | 0% | 21.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Carlos United SC · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | East County Revolution FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.20 | +0.52 | 0% | 22.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Solano Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Feb 27 at CVFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Solano Surf | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 27 | -24 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.09 | +0.06 | 0% | 21.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 at East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.01 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.