Sheriffs FC
ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU14 · 23 teams · Sheriffs FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM
KIPP Summit Academy, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.4 against · 1.88 expected points)
| Season so far | Sheriffs FC | Union FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 16th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-3-1 | 2-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W D L D | L L W D L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at East Bay United | 2–0 at Turlock Academica Jrs |
| Worst loss | 1–2 at Solano Surf | 2–4 at San Jose Rush |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.53 | -0.14 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.25 | -0.36 |
Common opponents: Solano Surf — we 1–2; they 2–0.
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 20% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Stanislaus Surf sit 8th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Stanislaus Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Union FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sheriffs FC – Union FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.71 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Win 1.71 PPG |
8th▲ up 1 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 1.43 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 2 | 13th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.29 PPG |
11th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 3 | 15th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 14%
- 9th 13%
- 10th 10%
- 11th 7%
- 12th 4%
- 13th 4%
- 14th 2%
- 15th 2%
- 16th 1%
- 17th <1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th <1%
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton TLJ FC | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.81) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | CVFA | 2.57 (+1.07) | 2nd (2.57) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | City SC Kings County | 2.50 (+1.00) | 4th (2.11) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 2.43 (+0.93) | 5th (2.06) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Livermore Fusion SC | 2.29 (+0.79) | 3rd (2.11) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 6 | Clovis Crossfire | 2.00 (+0.50) | 7th (1.68) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 7 | Walnut Creek Surf | 1.86 (+0.36) | 6th (1.87) | 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 8 | Stanislaus Surf | 1.67 (+0.17) | 10th (1.48) | A point next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 13 teams
Paths of results that link Sheriffs FC to Union FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.20 · 15th hardest of 23
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM |
Union FC 16th · 2-1-4 · GD -1 |
Home KIPP Summit Academy |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 03:00 PM |
San Ramon FC 23rd · 0-0-6 · GD -22 |
Home Edendale Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
4–0 | 2.78 | 1.71 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 12:30 PM |
San Jose Rush 20th · 1-0-4 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
San Jose High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.15 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 03:00 PM |
SF United FC 11th · 3-1-3 · GD -4 |
Home Edendale Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–1 | 2.01 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 03:00 PM |
Livermore Fusion SC 5th · 5-1-1 · GD +9 |
Home Edendale Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.32 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
Central Valley Premier FC -RL 14th · 2-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Edendale Middle School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 10:00 AM |
Clovis Crossfire 6th · 4-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Fresno Christian Schools |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.12 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 03:00 PM |
City SC Kings County 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home Edendale Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 1.68 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Stanislaus Surf 8th · 3-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.53 | 1.67 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Stockton TLJ FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 5 | +33 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.20 | +0.17 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | CVFA | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | +0.06 | -0.58 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Mar 13 vs East Bay United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | City SC Kings County | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | WWLWW | -0.34 | -0.24 | 56% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 17 | 2.43 | WDWWD | +0.01 | -0.10 | 45% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 16 | 2.29 | DWLWW | -0.24 | -0.26 | 62% | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Fresno Academy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Clovis Crossfire | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWLW | -0.40 | +0.68 | 8% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs CVFA · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Walnut Creek Surf | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 13 | 1.86 | WWLLW | -0.07 | -0.05 | 19% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Stanislaus Surf | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | +0 | 10 | 1.67 | LWDLW | +0.04 | +0.23 | 1% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Oct 31 at San Jose Rush · Sat Nov 7 at CVFA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sheriffs FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 9 | 1.50 | DLDWD | -0.25 | -0.20 | 6% | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC · Sat Nov 7 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Stanford Strikers | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 9 | 1.50 | LLWWW | -0.41 | +0.38 | 0% | 12.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | SF United FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 10 | 1.43 | DLWLL | +0.65 | -0.38 | 1% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FC Fresno Academy | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 9 | 1.29 | LWLWL | +0.10 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Solano Surf | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | 1.29 | WWLLW | +0.53 | -0.22 | 0% | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 vs South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Central Valley Premier FC -RL | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | WLLWL | +0.17 | -0.12 | 0% | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Legends FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 7 | 1.17 | LWLDW | +0.29 | -0.44 | 1% | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs City SC Kings County See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Union FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 | 1.00 | LDWLL | -0.36 | +0.14 | 0% | 14.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Bay Area Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Turlock Academica Jrs | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLLL | +0.43 | +0.03 | 0% | 17.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Kings County See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 5 | 0.71 | DWLLL | -0.29 | +0.01 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Fresno Academy See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | South Valley Chivas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 31 | -22 | 4 | 0.67 | LDWLL | +0.56 | -0.21 | 0% | 19.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | San Jose Rush | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLLW | +0.93 | -0.05 | 0% | 19.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | East Bay United | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 4 | 0.57 | LLLLW | -0.26 | +0.03 | 0% | 20.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Bay Area Surf | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 | 0.50 | WLLLL | -0.29 | -0.05 | 0% | 19.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.32 | -0.32 | 0% | 22.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs City SC Kings County · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.