Bay Area Surf

ECNL Regional League Boys · NorCal BU14 · 23 teams · Bay Area Surf (all teams)

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22nd

1-0-5 record · 6 played

0.50 points per game

-11 goal diff · 7–18

WLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 19.8

-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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Bay Area Surf
22nd · 0.50 PPG

Stanford Strikers
10th · 1.50 PPG

Valley Christian High School, Field 1 ↗

21% 18% 61%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.6 against · 0.81 expected points)

Season so far	Bay Area Surf	Stanford Strikers
Position	22nd	10th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-5	3-0-3
Points per game	0.50	1.50
Goals for / game	1.2	2.0
Goals against / game	3.0	1.8
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	3	1
Form (recent first)	L L L L W	W W W L L
Biggest win	5–4 vs Stanislaus Surf	6–1 at San Ramon FC
Worst loss	0–3 at Turlock Academica Jrs	0–4 vs CVFA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.29	+0.07
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.29	-0.41

Common opponents: East Bay United — we 0–3; they 3–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Turlock Academica Jrs, 0–3 at FC Fresno Academy, 0–3 at East Bay United.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Stanford Strikers have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
East Bay United sit 21st on 0.57 PPG; we are on 0.50.
A point moves us above East Bay United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Stanford Strikers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Bay Area Surf – Stanford Strikers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.43 PPG	22nd— holds	22nd— holds	22nd— holds
Win 0.86 PPG	18th▲ up 4	18th▲ up 4	22nd— holds
Draw 0.57 PPG	21st▲ up 1	19th▲ up 3	22nd— holds
Loss 0.43 PPG	22nd— holds	22nd— holds	22nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 22nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

19.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th <1%
9th
10th <1%
11th <1%
12th <1%
13th 1%
14th 1%
15th 2%
16th 4%
17th 6%
18th 12%
19th 15%
20th 19%
21st 18%
22nd 18%
23rd 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.06 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Stockton TLJ FC	3.00 (+2.50)	1st (2.81)	45 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	CVFA	2.57 (+2.07)	2nd (2.57)	39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	City SC Kings County	2.50 (+2.00)	4th (2.11)	37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	South Valley United Soccer Club	2.43 (+1.93)	5th (2.06)	36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5	Livermore Fusion SC	2.29 (+1.79)	3rd (2.11)	34 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Clovis Crossfire	2.00 (+1.50)	7th (1.68)	29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7	Walnut Creek Surf	1.86 (+1.36)	6th (1.87)	27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8	Stanislaus Surf	1.67 (+1.17)	10th (1.48)	24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9	Sheriffs FC	1.50 (+1.00)	8th (1.67)	21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
10	Stanford Strikers	1.50 (+1.00)	13th (1.37)	21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11	SF United FC	1.43 (+0.93)	9th (1.49)	20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
12	FC Fresno Academy	1.29 (+0.79)	11th (1.42)	18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
13	Solano Surf	1.29 (+0.79)	14th (1.35)	18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
14	Central Valley Premier FC -RL	1.17 (+0.67)	15th (1.22)	16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
15	Legends FC	1.17 (+0.67)	12th (1.38)	16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
16	Union FC	1.00 (+0.50)	16th (1.16)	13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
17	Turlock Academica Jrs	1.00 (+0.50)	18th (0.95)	13 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection
18	Diablo Valley Futbol Club	0.71 (+0.21)	17th (1.03)	A point next game
19	South Valley Chivas	0.67 (+0.17)	20th (0.75)	A point next game
20	San Jose Rush	0.60 (+0.10)	19th (0.80)	A point next game
21	East Bay United	0.57 (+0.07)	22nd (0.64)	Already ahead

How the results connect

9 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link Bay Area Surf to Stanford Strikers through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

7 favour them

-3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.05 · 11th hardest of 23

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 10 03:00 PM no score posted	Central Valley Premier FC -RL 14th · 2-1-3 · GD -3	Away far trip Riverway Sports Park	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–1	0.85	0.55	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Stanford Strikers 10th · 3-0-3 · GD +1	Home Valley Christian High School	●●●●● Very tough	21%	1–2	0.81	0.58	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:25 PM	Union FC 16th · 2-1-4 · GD -1	Away far trip Larchmont Community Park	●●●●● Very tough	18%	1–2	0.72	0.60	Upside
Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM	San Jose Rush 20th · 1-0-4 · GD -12	Home Valley Christian High School	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.38	0.68	Upside
Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM	San Ramon FC 23rd · 0-0-6 · GD -22	Away far trip Rancho San Ramon Community Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.81	0.78	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 12:30 PM	CVFA 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +21	Away far trip Turlock Regional Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.09	0.72	Upside
Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM	Diablo Valley Futbol Club 18th · 1-2-4 · GD -1	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	25%	1–2	0.97	0.74	Upside
Sat Apr 17 11:00 AM	Solano Surf 13th · 3-0-4 · GD -5	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●●●○ Tough	27%	1–2	1.03	0.76	Upside
Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM	Walnut Creek Surf 7th · 4-1-2 · GD +10	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	11%	1–3	0.46	0.74	Upside
Sat May 1 11:00 AM	Livermore Fusion SC 5th · 5-1-1 · GD +9	Home Willow Glen High School · turf?	●●●●● Very tough	12%	1–2	0.51	0.73	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Stockton TLJ FC

+33

3.00

WWWWW

-0.20

+0.17

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	SF United FC (11th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	13–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	CVFA (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	9–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Nov 7 at Clovis Crossfire See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	4–0	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Union FC (16th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	4–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	4–1	88%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	4–1	89%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CVFA

+21

2.57

WWWWW

+0.06

-0.58

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Solano Surf (13th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	5–0
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Mar 13 vs East Bay United See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	East Bay United (21st)	4–0	95%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	4–0	94%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	4–0	89%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat May 1	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	5–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

City SC Kings County

2.50

WWLWW

-0.34

-0.24

56%

4.7

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	4–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at San Ramon FC · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Turlock Academica Jrs See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Legends FC (15th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Bay United (21st)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 1	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley United Soccer Club

2.43

WDWWD

+0.01

-0.10

46%

4.9

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	East Bay United (21st)	1–0
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Legends FC (15th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Nov 7 at Solano Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Solano Surf (13th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Union FC (16th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	CVFA (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	SF United FC (11th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–1	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Livermore Fusion SC

2.29

DWLWW

-0.24

-0.26

60%

4.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	1–0
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	SF United FC (11th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Clovis Crossfire · Sat Oct 31 vs East Bay United · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Fresno Academy See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	East Bay United (21st)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Legends FC (15th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	2–0	69%
·	Sat May 1	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Clovis Crossfire

2.00

LWWLW

-0.40

+0.68

8.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	8–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Legends FC (15th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	SF United FC (11th)	2–3
W	Sat Aug 15	at	Union FC (16th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Oct 31 vs CVFA · Sat Nov 7 vs Stockton TLJ FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	CVFA (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	3–1	71%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	2–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Walnut Creek Surf

+10

1.86

WWLLW

-0.07

-0.05

21%

6.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Union FC (16th)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	SF United FC (11th)	5–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	East Bay United (21st)	7–0
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Solano Surf (13th)	3–0
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Oct 31 at Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanislaus Surf

1.67

LWDLW

+0.04

+0.23

10.9

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC (16th)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	4–5
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs East Bay United · Sat Oct 31 at San Jose Rush · Sat Nov 7 at CVFA See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	East Bay United (21st)	2–1	71%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CVFA (2nd)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Legends FC (15th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	SF United FC (11th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sheriffs FC

1.50

DLDWD

-0.25

-0.20

8.3

D	Sat Oct 17	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	East Bay United (21st)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Legends FC (15th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Solano Surf (13th)	1–2
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–1
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC · Sat Oct 31 vs San Ramon FC · Sat Nov 7 at San Jose Rush See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC (16th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	3–1	66%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	SF United FC (11th)	3–1	62%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	2–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stanford Strikers

1.50

LLWWW

-0.41

+0.38

12.4

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	6–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Bay United (21st)	3–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Bay Area Surf · Sat Nov 7 at SF United FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–1	42%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SF United FC (11th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Legends FC (15th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Union FC (16th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–2	32%
·	Sat May 1	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SF United FC

-4

1.43

DLWLL

+0.65

-0.38

10.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–5
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Aug 15	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Turlock Academica Jrs · Sat Oct 31 vs Union FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Stanford Strikers See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Union FC (16th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–3	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Bay United (21st)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 1	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Fresno Academy

1.29

LWLWL

+0.10

-0.01

11.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SF United FC (11th)	5–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CVFA (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	3–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Legends FC (15th)	6–2
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanford Strikers · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley Chivas · Sat Nov 7 vs Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–2	38%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	3–0	87%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	1–4	5%
·	Sat May 1	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	3–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Solano Surf

-5

1.29

WWLLW

+0.53

-0.22

12.7

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Union FC (16th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	3–1
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 15	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Nov 7 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Mar 13 vs South Valley Chivas See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Legends FC (15th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Central Valley Premier FC -RL

-3

1.17

WLLWL

+0.17

-0.12

14.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Legends FC (15th)	2–4
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	2–1
D	Sat Aug 15	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Bay Area Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	1–1	57%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	East Bay United (21st)	1–1	51%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	1–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–1	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Legends FC

-4

1.17

LWLDW

+0.29

-0.44

12.2

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–2
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	4–2
L	Sun Aug 16	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	2–6
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 17 at San Jose Rush · Sat Oct 24 vs Solano Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs City SC Kings County See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–2	52%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	2–1	47%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	East Bay United (21st)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Union FC (16th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat May 1	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC

-1

1.00

LDWLL

-0.36

+0.14

14.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 10	at	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	2–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	2–0
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Oct 31 at SF United FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Bay Area Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Legends FC (15th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat May 1	vs	East Bay United (21st)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Turlock Academica Jrs

-6

1.00

LWLLL

+0.43

+0.03

17.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	0–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Union FC (16th)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 15	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SF United FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at City SC Kings County See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Legends FC (15th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	2–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	0–2	12%
·	Sat May 1	at	Solano Surf (13th)	1–1	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Diablo Valley Futbol Club

-1

0.71

DWLLL

-0.29

+0.01

16.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	at	Legends FC (15th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	6–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–1
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	0–2
D	Sat Aug 15	at	East Bay United (21st)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 at Stockton TLJ FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC Fresno Academy See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Solano Surf (13th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SF United FC (11th)	2–1	44%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

South Valley Chivas

-22

0.67

LDWLL

+0.56

-0.21

19.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	2–8
L	Sat Oct 10	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	East Bay United (21st)	3–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Union FC (16th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	0–13
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Fresno Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Central Valley Premier FC -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Solano Surf (13th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–3	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	2–2	53%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–2	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat May 1	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–5	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Jose Rush

-12

0.60

LLLLW

+0.93

-0.05

19.2

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Union FC (16th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	0–1
L	Sat Aug 22	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Aug 15	at	Stockton TLJ FC (1st)	1–9

Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanislaus Surf · Sat Nov 7 vs Sheriffs FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 17 (no score yet)	vs	Legends FC (15th)	2–2	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	1–3	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Clovis Crossfire (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	South Valley Chivas (19th)	3–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	CVFA (2nd)	0–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1	25%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Solano Surf (13th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	1–3	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Bay United

-14

0.57

LLLLW

-0.26

+0.03

20.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Sheriffs FC (9th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–3
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	0–7
L	Sun Aug 16	at	South Valley United Soccer Club (4th)	0–1
D	Sat Aug 15	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Stanislaus Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Livermore Fusion SC · Sat Nov 7 at Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Legends FC (15th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	CVFA (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	SF United FC (11th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Ramon FC (23rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sat May 1	at	Union FC (16th)	1–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Bay Area Surf

-11

0.50

WLLLL

-0.29

-0.05

19.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	East Bay United (21st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SF United FC (11th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–3
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Stanislaus Surf (8th)	5–4
L	Sat Aug 15	at	City SC Kings County (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 10 at Central Valley Premier FC -RL · Sat Oct 31 vs Stanford Strikers · Sat Nov 7 at Union FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Union FC (16th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	San Jose Rush (20th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	San Ramon FC (23rd)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CVFA (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Solano Surf (13th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	1–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Ramon FC

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.32

-0.32

22.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Livermore Fusion SC (5th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Stanford Strikers (10th)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Diablo Valley Futbol Club (18th)	0–6
L	Sat Aug 22	at	CVFA (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Aug 16	at	Central Valley Premier FC -RL (14th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 15	vs	Turlock Academica Jrs (17th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs City SC Kings County · Sat Oct 31 at Sheriffs FC · Sat Nov 7 at Walnut Creek Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	City SC Kings County (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sheriffs FC (9th)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Walnut Creek Surf (7th)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Bay Area Surf (22nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	SF United FC (11th)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	South Valley Chivas (19th)	2–2	30%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Fresno Academy (12th)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	East Bay United (21st)	1–2	22%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Legends FC (15th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.