NUU Avalanche
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU17 · 10 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM
Hansen Family Sports Complex, Indoor ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.7 against · 1.18 expected points)
| Season so far | NUU Avalanche | La Roca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-6 | 6-4-2 |
| Points per game | 1.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 4 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W L W | L D W D W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Arizona Arsenal | 3–0 vs Utah Athletic |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Utah Avalanche | 0–3 vs Utah Avalanche |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.15 | +0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.33 | -0.15 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–2 at La Roca FC (L)
Common opponents: Utah Avalanche — we 0–5; they 0–3, 1–0. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 1–2, 0–3; they 1–1, 1–1. Arizona Soccer Club — we 1–1, 5–1; they 3–3, 2–3. Utah Athletic — we 1–2; they 3–0. CCV STARS — we 0–1, 1–1; they 2–1, 2–2. Arizona Arsenal — we 4–0, 3–2; they 2–1, 4–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–5 at Utah Avalanche, 0–2 at La Roca FC, 0–1 vs CCV STARS, 0–3 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 32%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
CCV STARS sit 5th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.A point moves us above CCV STARS on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NUU Avalanche – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.15 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.31 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.15 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.08 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 24%
- 7th 35%
- 8th 27%
- 9th 4%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.78 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche | 2.58 (+1.41) | 1st (2.48) | 33 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Athletic | 2.00 (+0.83) | 2nd (1.94) | 22 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | La Roca FC | 1.83 (+0.66) | 4th (1.75) | 19 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 4 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 1.64 (+0.47) | 3rd (1.77) | 16 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
| 5 | CCV STARS | 1.20 (+0.03) | 6th (1.33) | A point next game |
How the results connect
144 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link NUU Avalanche to La Roca FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.45 · 1st hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:45 AM |
La Roca FC 3rd · 6-4-2 · GD +7 |
Home Hansen Family Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM |
Utah Avalanche 1st · 10-1-1 · GD +27 |
Home Hansen Family Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
0–2 | 0.55 | 1.12 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:45 AM |
Utah Athletic 2nd · 8-0-4 · GD +18 |
Home Hansen Family Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.10 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 12:45 PM |
NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
2–2 | 1.38 | 1.12 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.43 | 1.14 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 8 | +27 | 31 | 2.58 | LWWWW | -0.34 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 24 | 2.00 | WWLWL | -0.42 | +0.24 | 98% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 22 | 1.83 | WDWDL | -0.15 | +0.00 | 85% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 | 1.64 | WWWDL | +0.24 | -0.63 | 86% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CCV STARS | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 | 1.20 | LDLDW | +0.55 | -0.71 | 8% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NUU Avalanche | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 14 | 1.17 | WLWDW | -0.33 | +0.45 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 6 | 0.55 | LLLLW | +0.37 | -0.43 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 42 | -32 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLLL | +0.56 | -0.26 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | El Paso Locomotive B09/10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.46 | +0.04 | 3% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.