CCV STARS
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU17 · 10 teams · CCV STARS (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
West Valley Events Complex, Field 12 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.4 against · 2.38 expected points)
| Season so far | CCV STARS | Arizona Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-4 | 1-0-9 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L D L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–2 vs Arizona Soccer Club | 3–2 vs Arizona Soccer Club |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Utah Athletic | 0–8 at Utah Athletic |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.43 | -2.23 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.55 | +0.56 |
Common opponents: La Roca FC — we 1–2, 2–2; they 1–2, 1–4. Utah Avalanche — we 1–1, 1–5; they 1–7, 2–3. NUU Avalanche — we 1–0, 1–1; they 0–4, 2–3. Utah Athletic — we 0–5, 1–0; they 0–8, 0–5. Arizona Soccer Club — we 4–2; they 3–2. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 2–4; they 0–4.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Arizona Arsenal concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–8 at Utah Athletic.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Utah Athletic.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Arizona Arsenal have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arizona Arsenal game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CCV STARS – Arizona Arsenal) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.36 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.36 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.18 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.09 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 5%
- 5th 32%
- 6th 33%
- 7th 18%
- 8th 9%
- 9th 2%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche | 2.58 (+1.38) | 1st (2.48) | 35 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Athletic | 2.00 (+0.80) | 2nd (1.94) | 24 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | La Roca FC | 1.83 (+0.63) | 4th (1.75) | 21 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 4 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 1.64 (+0.44) | 3rd (1.77) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
How the results connect
140 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link CCV STARS to Arizona Arsenal through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.71 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Arizona Arsenal 8th · 1-0-9 · GD -32 |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
3–1 | 2.38 | 1.31 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 4th · 5-3-3 · GD +7 |
Home CCV Stars Peoria Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.93 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
Arizona Soccer Club 7th · 1-3-7 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–1 | 1.47 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.52 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home West Valley Events Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.28 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Arizona Arsenal 8th · 1-0-9 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Arizona Athletic Grounds |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Sunland Park Sports Complex Turf Field · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.21 | 1.33 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 8 | +27 | 31 | 2.58 | LWWWW | -0.34 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 24 | 2.00 | WWLWL | -0.42 | +0.24 | 98% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 22 | 1.83 | WDWDL | -0.15 | +0.00 | 86% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 | 1.64 | WWWDL | +0.24 | -0.63 | 88% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CCV STARS | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 | 1.20 | LDLDW | +0.55 | -0.71 | 6% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NUU Avalanche | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 14 | 1.17 | WLWDW | -0.33 | +0.45 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 6 | 0.55 | LLLLW | +0.37 | -0.43 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 42 | -32 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLLL | +0.56 | -0.26 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | El Paso Locomotive B09/10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.46 | +0.04 | 2% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.