La Roca FC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU17 · 10 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)

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3rd

6-4-2 record · 12 played

1.83 points per game

+7 goal diff · 23–16

WDWDLlast 5

85% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.6

-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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La Roca FC
3rd · 1.83 PPG

NUU Avalanche
6th · 1.17 PPG

Hansen Family Sports Complex, Indoor ↗ far trip

45% 23% 32%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.4 against · 1.59 expected points)

Season so far	La Roca FC	NUU Avalanche
Position	3rd	6th
Record (W-D-L)	6-4-2	4-2-6
Points per game	1.83	1.17
Goals for / game	1.9	1.7
Goals against / game	1.3	1.8
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	1	4
Form (recent first)	L D W D W	W D W L W
Biggest win	3–0 vs Utah Athletic	4–0 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss	0–3 vs Utah Avalanche	0–5 at Utah Avalanche
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.40	-0.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.15	-0.33

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–0 vs NUU Avalanche (W)

Common opponents: Utah Athletic — we 3–0; they 1–2. CCV STARS — we 2–1, 2–2; they 0–1, 1–1. Arizona Arsenal — we 2–1, 4–1; they 4–0, 3–2. Utah Avalanche — we 0–3, 1–0; they 0–5. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 1–1, 1–1; they 1–2, 0–3. Arizona Soccer Club — we 3–3, 2–3; they 1–1, 5–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Utah Avalanche.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 23% / loss 32%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 10:45 AM at Hansen Family Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NUU Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC – NUU Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.77 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.92 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.77 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.69 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

85% top 4

15% below the top 4

3.6 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 15%
3rd 30%
4th 40%
5th 13%
6th 3%
7th <1%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.22 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Utah Avalanche	2.58 (+0.75)	1st (2.48)	25 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Utah Athletic	2.00 (+0.17)	2nd (1.94)	14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection

How the results connect

144 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link La Roca FC to NUU Avalanche through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

84 favour us

16 even

44 favour them

+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 5th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:45 AM	NUU Avalanche 6th · 4-2-6 · GD -2	Away far trip Hansen Family Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	1.81	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Utah Athletic 2nd · 8-0-4 · GD +18	Away far trip Murray Park Rugby & Soccer Fields	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.91	1.75	Upside
Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM	NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.78	1.75	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 11:15 AM	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3	Home Lakeside Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.04	1.77	Swing game
Sat Feb 6 12:45 PM	NM Rapids SC 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away far trip Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.51	1.75	Swing game
Sun Feb 7 01:00 PM	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3	Away far trip Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC)	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.76	1.75	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Utah Avalanche

+27

2.58

LWWWW

-0.34

-0.05

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	CCV STARS (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	2–0
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	1–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	7–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	3–1	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Utah Athletic

+18

2.00

WWLWL

-0.42

+0.24

97%

2.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	CCV STARS (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	5–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Feb 21	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

La Roca FC

1.83

WDWDL

-0.15

+0.00

85%

3.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–3
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	CCV STARS (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Feb 6	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Feb 7	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–1	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL

1.64

WWWDL

+0.24

-0.63

88%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–1
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	0–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	CCV STARS (5th)	1–1	54%
·	Thu Mar 11	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

CCV STARS

-8

1.20

LDLDW

+0.55

-0.71

5.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–5
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	4–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–0
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–1	66%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–2	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NUU Avalanche

-2

1.17

WLWDW

-0.33

+0.45

6.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–2
D	Sat Oct 17	at	CCV STARS (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	0–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Feb 20	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Soccer Club

-14

0.55

LLLLW

+0.37

-0.43

8.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	CCV STARS (5th)	2–4
D	Sun Sep 20	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	2–3
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	0–0
D	Sun Aug 30	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	1–2	37%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–2	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arizona Arsenal

-32

0.30

LLLLL

+0.56

-0.26

9.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	0–8
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CCV STARS (5th)	1–3	12%
·	Thu Mar 11	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	0–3	8%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–3	12%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–3	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NM Rapids SC

0.00

—

+0.04

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 20	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Feb 21	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–2	43%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	CCV STARS (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	El Paso Locomotive B09/10 (10th)	2–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–1	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Paso Locomotive B09/10

-3

0.00

+0.46

+0.04

7.4

L	Sun Sep 27	at	Utah Athletic (2nd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–4

Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Dec 5	at	Utah Avalanche (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	Utah Athletic (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	NUU Avalanche (6th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Feb 6	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	La Roca FC (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Feb 7	vs	Utah Avalanche (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	NM Rapids SC (9th)	2–2	37%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	CCV STARS (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NM Rapids SC (9th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Arizona Soccer Club (7th)	2–2	45%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Arizona Arsenal (8th)	4–1	79%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	CCV STARS (5th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.