NM Rapids SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU17 · 10 teams · NM Rapids SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 5, 12:00 PM
La Roca FC Utah County Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.0 against · 1.01 expected points)
| Season so far | NM Rapids SC | La Roca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 6-4-2 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | — | L D W D W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–0 vs Utah Athletic |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 vs Utah Avalanche |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | -0.15 |
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at La Roca FC Utah County Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Arizona Arsenal sit 8th on 0.30 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NM Rapids SC – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 8 | 1st▲ up 8 | 1st▲ up 8 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 7th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 6%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 27%
- 6th 22%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 4%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah Avalanche | 2.58 (+2.58) | 1st (2.48) | A point next game |
| 2 | Utah Athletic | 2.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (1.94) | A point next game |
| 3 | La Roca FC | 1.83 (+1.83) | 4th (1.75) | A point next game |
| 4 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 1.64 (+1.64) | 3rd (1.77) | A point next game |
| 5 | CCV STARS | 1.20 (+1.20) | 6th (1.33) | A point next game |
| 6 | NUU Avalanche | 1.17 (+1.17) | 7th (1.14) | A point next game |
| 7 | Arizona Soccer Club | 0.55 (+0.55) | 9th (0.80) | Already ahead |
| 8 | Arizona Arsenal | 0.30 (+0.30) | 10th (0.39) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
13 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 4th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM |
La Roca FC 3rd · 6-4-2 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.01 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche 1st · 10-1-1 · GD +27 |
Away far trip
St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
0–2 | 0.42 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 12:45 PM |
NUU Avalanche 6th · 4-2-6 · GD -2 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.02 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 12:45 PM |
Utah Athletic 2nd · 8-0-4 · GD +18 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.90 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 12:45 PM |
La Roca FC 3rd · 6-4-2 · GD +7 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.27 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Utah Avalanche 1st · 10-1-1 · GD +27 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 12:45 PM |
Utah Avalanche 1st · 10-1-1 · GD +27 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
NUU Avalanche 6th · 4-2-6 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.35 | 0.97 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
Utah Athletic 2nd · 8-0-4 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 01:00 PM |
Arizona Soccer Club 7th · 1-3-7 · GD -14 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.04 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 01:00 PM |
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 4th · 5-3-3 · GD +7 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.13 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 11:15 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Sunland Park Sports Complex Turf Field · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 1.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Arizona Arsenal 8th · 1-0-9 · GD -32 |
Away far trip
Santos Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 1.19 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
CCV STARS 5th · 3-3-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
West Valley Events Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.21 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B09/10 10th · 0-0-2 · GD -3 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.81 | 1.25 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Arizona Soccer Club 7th · 1-3-7 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.74 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 4th · 5-3-3 · GD +7 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.90 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 01:00 PM |
CCV STARS 5th · 3-3-4 · GD -8 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 10:45 AM |
Arizona Arsenal 8th · 1-0-9 · GD -32 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 1.36 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Utah Avalanche | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 35 | 8 | +27 | 31 | 2.58 | LWWWW | -0.34 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 13 | +18 | 24 | 2.00 | WWLWL | -0.42 | +0.24 | 98% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | La Roca FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 16 | +7 | 22 | 1.83 | WDWDL | -0.15 | +0.00 | 86% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 18 | 1.64 | WWWDL | +0.24 | -0.63 | 88% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B09/10 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | CCV STARS | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 | 1.20 | LDLDW | +0.55 | -0.71 | 6% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | NUU Avalanche | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 14 | 1.17 | WLWDW | -0.33 | +0.45 | 1% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 6 | 0.55 | LLLLW | +0.37 | -0.43 | 0% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 42 | -32 | 3 | 0.30 | LLLLL | +0.56 | -0.26 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | El Paso Locomotive B09/10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.46 | +0.04 | 2% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.89 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.