Utah Avalanche
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU16 · 10 teams · Utah Avalanche (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
St. Joseph Catholic High School, Turf Field ↗ · turf
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 1.9 against · 0.96 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Avalanche | Utah Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-8 | 5-3-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 6 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W L W | W W L W D |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal | 4–0 at CCV STARS |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 0–3 vs Arizona Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.41 | +0.47 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.22 | +0.20 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–3 at Utah Athletic (L)
Common opponents: NUU Avalanche — we 0–1; they 6–3. Arizona Arsenal — we 3–0, 0–2; they 1–2, 4–1. CCV STARS — we 0–1, 2–1; they 3–5, 4–0. La Roca FC — we 1–2, 2–0; they 1–1. Arizona Soccer Club — we 0–2, 2–0; they 0–3, 2–0. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 0–4, 0–3; they 1–1, 0–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 6 time(s): 0–1 vs NUU Avalanche, 0–1 vs CCV STARS, 0–2 vs Arizona Soccer Club, 0–4 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL, 0–2 at Arizona Arsenal, 0–3 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 24%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Athletic game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Avalanche – Utah Athletic) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.15 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.92 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 60%
- 9th 19%
- 10th 1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 2.64 (+1.64) | 1st (2.49) | 41 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B10/11 | 2.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (1.68) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 3 | CCV STARS | 1.90 (+0.90) | 3rd (1.64) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | Arizona Soccer Club | 1.73 (+0.73) | 5th (1.58) | 23 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 1.60 (+0.60) | 6th (1.43) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 6 | Utah Athletic | 1.50 (+0.50) | 4th (1.62) | 18 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
How the results connect
144 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Avalanche to Utah Athletic through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Utah Athletic 6th · 5-3-4 · GD +6 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 1.00 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
NUU Avalanche 9th · 2-0-10 · GD -33 |
Away St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.06 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 09:00 AM |
El Paso Locomotive B10/11 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–1 | 0.96 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
NM Rapids SC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B10/11 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.98 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 12:45 PM |
NM Rapids SC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.98 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 7 TBD |
El Paso Locomotive B10/11 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.03 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 29 | 2.64 | DWWWW | -0.38 | +0.24 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B10/11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.77 | +0.05 | 67% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CCV STARS | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 19 | 1.90 | DWLWL | -0.32 | +0.39 | 63% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 19 | 1.73 | LLWLD | -0.27 | +0.43 | 50% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 16 | 1.60 | LWDLW | -0.33 | +0.42 | 26% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 18 | 1.50 | DWLWW | +0.20 | -0.41 | 68% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Avalanche | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 | 1.00 | WLWWL | +0.22 | -0.02 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | La Roca FC | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 | 0.75 | LLDLD | +0.21 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NUU Avalanche | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 6 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.39 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.