Utah Athletic
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU16 · 10 teams · Utah Athletic Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
St. Joseph Catholic High School, Turf Field ↗ · turf far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.2 against · 1.81 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Athletic | Utah Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-3-4 | 4-0-8 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 6 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W D | L W W L W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 at CCV STARS | 3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal |
| Worst loss | 0–3 vs Arizona Soccer Club | 0–4 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.47 | -0.41 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.20 | +0.22 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 3–2 vs Utah Avalanche (W)
Common opponents: La Roca FC — we 1–1; they 1–2, 2–0. Arizona Soccer Club — we 0–3, 2–0; they 0–2, 2–0. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 1–1, 0–1; they 0–4, 0–3. NUU Avalanche — we 6–3; they 0–1. Arizona Arsenal — we 1–2, 4–1; they 3–0, 0–2. CCV STARS — we 3–5, 4–0; they 0–1, 2–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 vs Arizona Soccer Club, 0–0 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11, 0–1 at Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 23% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at St. Joseph Catholic High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Arizona Arsenal sit 5th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above Arizona Arsenal on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Athletic – Utah Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.46 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.62 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.46 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.38 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 4%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 2.64 (+1.14) | 1st (2.49) | 30 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B10/11 | 2.00 (+0.50) | 2nd (1.68) | 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 3 | CCV STARS | 1.90 (+0.40) | 3rd (1.64) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 4 | Arizona Soccer Club | 1.73 (+0.23) | 5th (1.58) | 14 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 1.60 (+0.10) | 6th (1.43) | A point next game |
How the results connect
144 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Athletic to Utah Avalanche through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
13 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.41 · 10th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche 7th · 4-0-8 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–1 | 1.81 | 1.52 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 05:00 PM |
La Roca FC 8th · 2-3-7 · GD -8 |
Home Murray Park Rugby & Soccer Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
1–0 | 2.09 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
NUU Avalanche 9th · 2-0-10 · GD -33 |
Away far trip
St. Joseph Catholic High School · turf |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 1.63 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B10/11 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Socorro Athletic Complex (SAC) |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 13 10:45 AM |
NM Rapids SC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
NM Rapids SC 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.82 | 1.62 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 29 | 2.64 | DWWWW | -0.38 | +0.24 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B10/11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.77 | +0.05 | 67% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CCV STARS | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 19 | 1.90 | DWLWL | -0.32 | +0.39 | 63% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 19 | 1.73 | LLWLD | -0.27 | +0.43 | 50% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 16 | 1.60 | LWDLW | -0.33 | +0.42 | 26% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 18 | 1.50 | DWLWW | +0.20 | -0.41 | 68% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Avalanche | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 | 1.00 | WLWWL | +0.22 | -0.02 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | La Roca FC | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 | 0.75 | LLDLD | +0.21 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NUU Avalanche | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 6 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.39 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.