La Roca FC

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St. Joseph Catholic High School, Grass Field ↗ · grass far trip

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.2 against · 1.78 expected points)

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–2 vs NUU Avalanche (L)

Common opponents: Utah Athletic — we 1–1; they 3–6. CCV STARS — we 2–1, 1–2; they 1–4, 0–2. Arizona Arsenal — we 1–3, 0–0; they 0–6, 1–6. Utah Avalanche — we 2–1, 0–2; they 1–0. Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL — we 0–1, 1–2; they 1–6, 0–4. Arizona Soccer Club — we 0–1, 1–1; they 1–2, 0–4.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  NUU Avalanche concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–6 vs Arizona Arsenal.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–2 vs NUU Avalanche, 0–1 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL, 0–1 vs Arizona Soccer Club, 0–2 at Utah Avalanche, 0–0 at Arizona Arsenal.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 52% / draw 23% / loss 25%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  NUU Avalanche have lost 8 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Grass field
  Venue listed as "Grass Field" at St. Joseph Catholic High School.

  If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

• Away game
  Kickoff 01:30 PM at St. Joseph Catholic High School.

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

Where we'd sit after the NUU Avalanche game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC – NUU Avalanche) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th <1%
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th 3%
8. 8th 20%
9. 9th 70%
10. 10th 6%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).