NM Rapids SC
ECNL Regional League Boys · Mountain BU16 · 10 teams · NM Rapids SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 5, 02:00 PM
La Roca FC Utah County Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.0 against · 1.61 expected points)
| Season so far | NM Rapids SC | La Roca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 2-3-7 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 5 |
| Form (recent first) | — | D L D L L |
| Biggest win | — | 2–1 vs CCV STARS |
| Worst loss | — | 1–3 vs Arizona Arsenal |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | -0.49 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.21 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
La Roca FC average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 5 of 12.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 45% / draw 27% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at La Roca FC Utah County Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
NUU Avalanche sit 9th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above NUU Avalanche on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NM Rapids SC – La Roca FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 3 | 8th▲ up 2 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 9 | 1st▲ up 9 | 1st▲ up 9 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 3 | 7th▲ up 3 | 8th▲ up 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 10th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 7%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 17%
- 7th 27%
- 8th 13%
- 9th 5%
- 10th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 2.64 (+2.64) | 1st (2.49) | A point next game |
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B10/11 | 2.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (1.68) | A point next game |
| 3 | CCV STARS | 1.90 (+1.90) | 3rd (1.64) | A point next game |
| 4 | Arizona Soccer Club | 1.73 (+1.73) | 5th (1.58) | A point next game |
| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 1.60 (+1.60) | 6th (1.43) | A point next game |
| 6 | Utah Athletic | 1.50 (+1.50) | 4th (1.62) | A point next game |
| 7 | Utah Avalanche | 1.00 (+1.00) | 8th (1.03) | A point next game |
| 8 | La Roca FC | 0.75 (+0.75) | 9th (0.84) | Already ahead |
| 9 | NUU Avalanche | 0.50 (+0.50) | 10th (0.52) | Already ahead |
Position over the season
13 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 5 02:00 PM |
La Roca FC 8th · 2-3-7 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche 7th · 4-0-8 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
St. Joseph Catholic High School · grass |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 10:45 AM |
NUU Avalanche 9th · 2-0-10 · GD -33 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.53 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 10:45 AM |
Utah Athletic 6th · 5-3-4 · GD +6 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 10:45 AM |
La Roca FC 8th · 2-3-7 · GD -8 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
1–0 | 1.84 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
Utah Avalanche 7th · 4-0-8 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 7 12:45 PM |
Utah Avalanche 7th · 4-0-8 · GD -7 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
NUU Avalanche 9th · 2-0-10 · GD -33 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
Utah Athletic 6th · 5-3-4 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.73 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 10:45 AM |
Arizona Soccer Club 4th · 6-1-4 · GD +5 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 10:45 AM |
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 1st · 9-2-0 · GD +24 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.52 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 01:00 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B10/11 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Jefferson High School- 4700 Alameda Ave. El Paso, |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.97 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
Arizona Arsenal 5th · 5-1-4 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Santos Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.14 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
CCV STARS 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
West Valley Events Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.06 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:45 PM |
El Paso Locomotive B10/11 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Arizona Soccer Club 4th · 6-1-4 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.09 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL 1st · 9-2-0 · GD +24 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
0–2 | 0.38 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:45 AM |
CCV STARS 3rd · 6-1-3 · GD +6 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Arizona Arsenal 5th · 5-1-4 · GD +4 |
Home Mesa Del Sol Regional Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.37 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 3 | +24 | 29 | 2.64 | DWWWW | -0.38 | +0.24 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 at Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | El Paso Locomotive B10/11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.77 | +0.05 | 67% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Dec 6 at La Roca FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Utah Athletic See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | CCV STARS | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 19 | 1.90 | DWLWL | -0.32 | +0.39 | 62% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sun Oct 25 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sat Mar 13 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Arizona Soccer Club | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 19 | 1.73 | LLWLD | -0.27 | +0.43 | 49% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Mar 13 vs CCV STARS · Sun Mar 14 vs Arizona Arsenal · Sat Mar 20 at NM Rapids SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Arizona Arsenal | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 16 | 1.60 | LWDLW | -0.33 | +0.42 | 28% | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at CCV STARS · Thu Mar 11 vs Playmaker Futbol Academy -RL · Sun Mar 14 at Arizona Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Athletic | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 18 | 1.50 | DWLWW | +0.20 | -0.41 | 67% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 vs La Roca FC · Sat Oct 31 at NUU Avalanche See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Avalanche | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 | 1.00 | WLWWL | +0.22 | -0.02 | 0% | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Utah Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at NUU Avalanche · Sat Dec 5 vs El Paso Locomotive B10/11 See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | La Roca FC | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 | 0.75 | LLDLD | +0.21 | -0.10 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at NUU Avalanche · Sun Oct 25 at Utah Athletic · Sat Dec 5 vs NM Rapids SC See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NUU Avalanche | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 46 | -33 | 6 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.39 | +0.01 | 0% | 9.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Utah Avalanche · Sat Oct 31 vs Utah Athletic See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | NM Rapids SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.01 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at La Roca FC · Sun Dec 6 at Utah Avalanche · Sat Dec 12 vs NUU Avalanche See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.63 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.